Weapons, Warnings, and War Calculations: The Iran-Israel Standoff Deepens

Iran’s missile power has come under global attention after its recent retaliatory strikes against Israel. Having one of the largest and the broadest stocks of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, Iran has demonstrated that it is a powerful military power despite its losses. A day after Israel raided Iran in what it termed as Operation Rising Lion to attack its nuclear and military facilities, the country fired hundreds of missiles and drones towards Israeli cities. Most of the projectiles launched against Iran were defended by the work-out air-defense systems of Israel, but some sneaked through and led to losses and damage.

The missile force of Iran is huge. The US intelligence estimated that Iran possessed about 2,000-3,000 ballistic missiles prior to the onset of the recent attacks. These missiles are not the same, some have shorter range and capability than others which are able to hit targets more than 2,000 kilometers away. They include medium range ballistic missiles such as the Emad, Ghadr-1, Shahab-3 and Sejjil. Not only they are big and strong, but they are difficult to intercept. The newer models of Iran such as the Kheibar Shekan or Qassem Basir are made to turn during the flight and escape being fired by the enemy shields. Iran has even begun development, and experimentation with hypersonic missiles like the Fattah-1 and Fattah-2, that are capable of exceeding the speed of sound by more than thirteen times the speed of sound. It is hoped that the air-defenses system would find this very difficult to intercept in the light of its flight path and speed.

Despite this strength, Iran is now facing serious challenges in keeping up its missile attacks. Israeli strikes have reportedly destroyed a large number of Iran’s missile launchers and storage sites. Some estimates suggest that around 30 to 50 percent of Iran’s launch capacity has already been wiped out. This means Iran may struggle to keep launching attacks at the same scale. It has also been reported that Iran planned to fire 1,000 missiles in retaliation but was unable to do so because its missile bases had been damaged by Israeli airstrikes.

These attacks by Iran involved approximately 400 ballistic missiles, and hundreds of drones. Israeli defenses, the Iron Dome, David Sling, Arrow-2, Arrow-3, and the US Patriot systems shot down most of them. In spite of this some missiles made it into Israeli cities and at least 13 people were killed and hundreds given additional injuries. This tactic of Iran to deploy so numerous missiles and drones simultaneously can be defined as a saturation attack. The principle is that of saturating air-defense-systems by sending out so many targets that they cannot shoot all of them down within the same time.

In order to enhance these attacks, Iran employed a system of launching which involved a technique termed as the Missile Shower System. It is used in achieving a rapid launch of multiple missiles through one platform. Nonetheless, this strategy can be effective only in case that launchers will not be destroyed. Israeli intelligence has been very efficient and a number of such launch systems have now been taken out.

The missile program of Iran is mostly domestic. The country has been pre-occupied with developing its available missile technology in the recent decades as it lacked open access to sources of international arms trade. This has enabled it to come up with a variety of missiles which are able to reach targets much later than their borders. Rockets such as the Sejjil are propelled by solid fuel which implies a quicker launch and they are simplified to move around. The others such as the emad and Shahab-3 are liquid-fueled and need more time to be prepared yet transport heavier warheads.

Israel has however proved to be very competent in defending itself. It has one of the most efficient Iron Dome systems that are used in shooting short-range rockets and artillery. In longer-range missile threats such as ballistic missiles, other systems in use include David Sling and Arrow series which is used by Israel. Even under these security measures, all threats cannot be prevented. Not all warheads are reduced against the defenses and they end up causing damages.

A key point of concern to Iran is the fact that it is possible to launch the missiles, but it is less evident whether the missiles can be very targeted or how many of them will succeed to bypass interception. Iran has lost a great number of its highest ranking military personnel, nuclear experts and missile experts to Israeli offensives in the past few weeks. This has not only insomuch worked out the capability of Iran to launch missiles but has also caused fear within the Iranian nation with regard to what extent Israeli intelligence is, and that how much far it can go within programs within Iranian top secret category.

In the meantime, Israel has been hitting on the underground nuclear structures of Iran including the Natanz complex. The Iranian government has attested that it has a peaceful nuclear program, but the international community (United Nations) has expressed its dissatisfaction with Iran not complying with the international standards. Analysts indicate that although Israel has inflicted severe damage to some of these sites, they lack the deep-penetration bombs to smash bunkers underground fully. To that, Israel would need considerably bigger American-made bombs.

Since the war rages on, it is emerging that Iran is experiencing pressure. Loss of missile launchers, highly skilled workers and poor capacity to make precise strikes are undermining its capacity. Despite the threat, which Iran continues to possess, particularly through its hypersonic and maneuverable missiles, there is an indication that its capability in maintaining a sustained missile warfare is thwarting.

Analysts now feel that the war can take a pattern of numberless yet low-intensity form of war, in which both parties will keep on executing strikes, albeit in restricted form in the long run. It is probable that Israel will continue to exert force by making airstrikes with precision, and it would seem that Iran can seek alternate methods to retaliate either through drone attacks, proxy forces or a cyber-attack. Meanwhile, Iran is going through the sternest challenge so far in the powerful missile program that was considered unstoppable at some point.