Aviation Turbulence or Political Payback? India-Turkey Fallout Grounds Bilateral Ties

India’s decision to terminate a crucial aircraft leasing agreement with Turkish Airlines (THY) and end its codeshare pact with the Turkish carrier by August 31 marks a new chapter in the ongoing political fallout between New Delhi and Ankara. At the center of this air shakeup is a wider geopolitical rift – Turkey’s public show of support for Pakistan during new Kashmir tensions has sparked nationalist outrage in India, manifesting as economic and diplomatic reprisal wrapped in regulatory choices.

The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) move to provide only a three-month extension – as opposed to the six months sought by IndiGo – is being viewed not so much as bureaucratic routine but as a brazenly political gesture. By not permitting IndiGo to extend its lease of two THY Boeing 777-300ERs, India has de facto indicated its increasing intolerance of alliances with countries that it views as supportive of Pakistan. The fact that they were staffed and serviced by Turkish personnel only heighten nationalist feelings, bringing suspicion and pressure for a breach.

Even as the regulator insists this is a “one-time, last and final” approval, timing and suddenness imply concurrence with wider diplomatic tides. The codeshare pact between THY and IndiGo, launched in 2018 and extended in 2023, had facilitated smooth transfer of passengers to Europe and North America through Istanbul. The agreement, which has now been canceled, was central to IndiGo’s long-haul plans. The cancellation compels India’s biggest homegrown airline to reshape its international strategy, particularly on routes that have traditionally been dominated by European and Gulf carriers.

What provoked such extreme escalation? It comes after inflammatory rhetoric by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Ankara’s foreign ministry denouncing India’s airstrikes over Kashmir and presenting them as provocations likely to widen regional conflict. The comments followed days of small arms exchanges between Indian and Pakistani soldiers along the Line of Control in April. While the skirmishes were fleeting, Turkey’s response – aligned with Pakistan’s line – struck a nerve in New Delhi.

Since then, a tide of nationalist economic revenge swept through India. Appeals for boycotting Turkish products, services, and collaborations gained momentum not only among social media communities but also institutional stakeholders. Air India openly lobbied the aviation ministry to cancel IndiGo’s THY lease on reasons of “national security” and “fairness in the market.” Indian business lobbies such as the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) have gone even further, calling for a complete trade freeze with both Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Ground-level effects are being experienced rapidly. The Indian Ministry of Civil Aviation canceled the security clearance of Çelebi, a Turkish ground-handling firm that serves nine Indian airports. Although Çelebi has challenged the move in court – arguing that 65% of its equity lies with international institutional investors, not the Turkish government – its activities now risk being disrupted. In the meantime, the tourism sector, which is already sensitive to world economic trends, is suffering immensely. As per local reports, Turkey and Azerbaijan bookings have declined by 60 percent, with cancellations jumping more than 250 percent last week. Large online travel companies such as MakeMyTrip and EaseMyTrip have stopped selling Turkey packages completely.

The backlash is also reconfiguring consumer markets. In the marble-processing town of Udaipur, merchants have ceased importing Turkish marble, which supplied 70 percent of the market. Indian farmers, however, celebrated the reduction of Turkish apple imports, expecting better domestic prices. Rajeev Chandrasekhar, a parliamentarian from the ruling party, echoed the nationalist rhetoric by proposing that Indian tourists and consumers refrain from financially supporting nations that “support our enemies.”

However, underpinning these spontaneous gestures is a more complex reality. Observers point out that India and Turkey do not have traditionally deep trade and tourism ties. In 2024, Turkey imported only 2 percent of its goods from India and sold only 0.5 percent of its products to the Indian market. The machinery and fruit constitute Turkey’s major exports to India, but the quantity is small. Likewise, no more than 330,000 Indian visitors went to Turkey in 2024 – a mere 0.6 percent of foreign travelers to Turkey. Numerically, a mere 5 out of every 1,000 tourists in Turkey were Indian citizens.

This limited interdependence can be seen as the reason for Turkey’s comparative diplomatic assertiveness in criticizing India. In an interview with BBC Hindi, Dr. Omair Anas of Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University contended that Turkey’s sympathy with Pakistan is on account of an old ideological comfort and the conviction that India has very little leverage with its strategic or economic interests. Turkey’s overall geopolitical stance under Erdoğan has frequently been one of vocal alignment with Muslim causes across the world, and Kashmir is no different.

Nevertheless, the consequences of the fallout are real. IndiGo, Asia’s fastest-growing airline, is left without two wide-body aircraft essential to its high-density Europe routes. The carrier has to scramble for substitutes or reimagine its network – a complicated and costly task considering worldwide aircraft shortages. Turkish Airlines, in turn, loses a strategic position in the Indian aviation system at a moment when it was growing its Asian presence.

Even as nationalist lobbies score symbolic wins, long-term dividends from this boycott are uncertain. India’s aviation and tourism sectors are competitive but still in the making, and denying Turkish collaborations would be to inhibit connectivity instead of supporting sovereignty. On the other hand, Turkey’s reaction has been subdued – perhaps to prevent further escalation of diplomatic tensions – but Ankara is unlikely to change its ideological stand on Kashmir.

The cutting of air links and economic collaboration mirrors a larger phenomenon in international geopolitics, where foreign policy is more often determined by local feeling and identity politics. Here, aviation has been caught in the middle as collateral damage to a diplomatic scrap – a symbolic but significant victim of nationalist bluster on both sides.