Afghanistan: A Geopolitical Playground for Indian Intelligence – Rethinking South Asia’s Security Architecture

In the volatile chessboard of South Asia, Afghanistan remains a pivotal square where competing regional interests collide. While the international spotlight has shifted elsewhere after the 2021 U.S. withdrawal and the Taliban’s return to power, covert rivalries continue to shape the region’s security environment. Among them, India’s strategic presence in Afghanistan- long presented as benign and developmental- deserves critical scrutiny for its alleged role in fomenting instability in Pakistan.

Pakistan has, over the years, repeatedly accused India of weaponizing its diplomatic footprint in Afghanistan to support anti-Pakistan elements, most notably the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and other separatist outfits. While India denies any wrongdoing, evidence emerging from international investigations and Pakistan’s security assessments paints a different picture- one that demands attention, accountability, and recalibration of how external involvement in Afghanistan is understood.

India’s Diplomatic Presence: Strategic Cover or Subversive Gateway?

India’s investment in Afghanistan- amounting to over $3 billion- includes road construction, parliament buildings, dams, and scholarships. Publicly, this is framed as soft power diplomacy. Yet, the strategic location of India’s former consulates in Jalalabad and Kandahar- both near the Pakistan border- has fueled speculation and concern in Islamabad.

Pakistani officials have long maintained that these consulates served more than cultural outreach or consular services. Instead, they were allegedly used as operational outposts for Indian intelligence agency RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) to coordinate funding, intelligence, and logistical support to militant groups targeting Pakistan. Although India denies this, the circumstantial alignment of these facilities with militant infiltration routes and insurgent safe havens adds weight to the accusations.

The TTP and BLA Nexus: Afghan Soil as a Launchpad

After the fall of Kabul in August 2021, Afghanistan became an ungoverned space where transnational militant groups including the TTP, Islamic State Khorasan (ISKP), and others gained operational freedom. Pakistan has repeatedly warned that the TTP leadership, particularly Noor Wali Mehsud and his affiliates, operate with impunity from eastern Afghanistan. This claim is supported by recent UN Security Council reports and independent think tanks like the Center for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS).

More critically, Pakistan asserts that India has provided covert support to the TTP, not only to destabilize Pakistan’s tribal areas but to retaliate against perceived Pakistani support for Kashmir’s insurgency. While direct proof is classified, the volume and intensity of attacks since 2022- including the Peshawar mosque bombing in January 2023- are cited by Islamabad as indicators of a coordinated escalation backed by external intelligence.

Similarly, Baloch separatist groups like the BLA and Balochistan Youth Council (BYC) have also allegedly benefited from training and logistical support across the Afghan border. The March 2025 hijacking of the Jaffar Express, where BLA militants commandeered a passenger train and killed over a dozen civilians, is a recent case in point. After the operation, Pakistan’s Interior Ministry announced it had evidence of militant handlers operating from camps in Afghanistan, and accused India of backing them as part of a hybrid warfare campaign.

The Global Angle: India’s Shadowy Operations Exposed

What gives these accusations international traction is the recent investigative reporting by The Guardian (April 2024), which uncovered a pattern of extrajudicial assassinations allegedly conducted by Indian operatives on foreign soil. While the story centered on Sikh activists in Canada and the UK, it also included revelations about covert killings in Pakistan, including targeted hits on figures linked to militant groups. The report cited Indian intelligence officials as saying they adopted a “third-country strategy” to eliminate threats without direct attribution.

Although the Indian government rejected the allegations, such revelations validate Pakistan’s long-standing concerns that India has extended its counterterrorism doctrine beyond its borders, with Afghanistan being a permissive operating environment until recently.

India’s Denial and Pakistan’s Counter-Narrative

India continues to deny all allegations of interference in Afghanistan and characterizes Pakistan’s accusations as attempts to distract from internal failings. Indian officials argue that their development projects in Afghanistan benefited ordinary Afghans and contributed to regional stability.

Pakistan, however, sees this as a classic example of dual-track diplomacy- developmental aid on the surface, subversion beneath. Islamabad’s position is that India has selectively weaponized its influence in Kabul, especially under regimes that were aligned with New Delhi during the post-2001 U.S. occupation period.

Toward a Constructive Regional Security Framework

The path forward must not rest solely on denial or blame-shifting. If the South Asian region is to move beyond proxy wars, it requires a collective agreement on non-interference, especially in fragile states like Afghanistan. Regional forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and SAARC must evolve to not only foster dialogue but also monitor covert operations that jeopardize peace.

Moreover, the Afghan Taliban, now in de facto control, must act decisively to prevent their soil from being used by any actor- state or non-state- as a launchpad for regional sabotage. Silence or inaction on their part further emboldens covert activity and complicates regional trust-building.

India’s role in Afghanistan is no longer a story of soft power and infrastructure- it is increasingly viewed, particularly by Pakistan, as a calculated geopolitical strategy that uses proxy networks to achieve security objectives at Pakistan’s expense. With mounting evidence and growing international awareness of India’s shadow operations, a serious reassessment of New Delhi’s footprint in Afghanistan is urgently needed.

For Pakistan, articulating this narrative with facts, global engagement, and strategic clarity is crucial. For Afghanistan and the wider region, it is a test of whether regional sovereignty and stability can be protected from becoming collateral in South Asia’s enduring rivalries.