India’s Isolation: How New Delhi’s Hegemonic Ambitions Are Backfiring

Countries are seldom alone in the watchful eyes of international diplomacy. They stand secluded, usually of their own. India as it performs a dramatic example of untimely aspiration bumping into geopolitical reality. New Delhi, which has been till recently cast in the role of an emerging regional power with global ambitions, is today out of favor not only with conventional rivals but also with its own script as well. Its efforts in seeking to isolate Pakistan in a diplomatic way have ironically, cast India further apart than ever.

This discombobulation has its origins in Indian miscalculations in strategy. New Delhi had been trying to position itself as a civilizational super power, keen on overtaking the influence of Pakistan in South Asia and beyond, over the years. It used much of its diplomatic influence in trying to isolate Islamabad, lobbied international organizations, sponsored anti-Pakistan motions, and in using its Western allies to undermine the legitimacy of the Pakistani position. The result? A geographic boomerang.

Washington to Riyadh and around the world, the corridors of global diplomacy are no more so open to India and its hegemonic ambitions. This was perhaps most evident in the recent fiasco of ceasefire. A similar situation happened when Donald Trump publicly took the credit of negotiating a ceasefire between Pakistan and India, the office of the prime minister scrambled to refute the claim arguing it was bilateral. Trump was not impressed. The following day, in what piqued New Delhi to the last nerve, Trump invited the Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan, General Asim Munir, to a high-level delegation in White House. The optics were beyond all doubt. America had stopped considering India as the axis of South Asian stability.

Such a diplomatic snub did not occur in isolation. A reluctance to assume a principled position on world conflicts and the India refusal to impose sanction on Russia, over the Ukraine war, has elicited silent but stern condemnation in the west. Paper-wise, India is an ally of Washington in the Indo-Pacific strategy. In reality, it purchases Russian oil at discount, evades sanctions and gets around in betting between the competing power blocks. This leads to distrust everywhere. Even the Biden administration, in spite of formally continuing friendly relations, is now tired of the strategic hypocrisy of India, not least because India will not take sides in cases where human rights and international law are also involved.

Complicated by overestimation of India in both economic and military power, this strategic ambiguity has made use of disputes and conflict over the years. With its flashy GDP rates, GDP per capita is one of the lowest in the G20 countries in India. Its statistics is often alleged to be manipulated. Its poverty is enormous and rural. Lying thin beneath the tech-boom varnish is its actual economic sturdiness. In military terms, as well, Indian prouder has been dented by ignominious defeats, foremost among them being its tussles with Pakistan and China that highlighted grave want of operational readiness and strategic thinking. Inability to record any significant success against Pakistan especially after such provocative actions like Balakot pointed at the weakness of Indian military doctrine.

But what is most worrying is certainly that India is increasingly turning authoritarian at home and adventurist abroad. The Modi regime has enacted a number of openly discriminatory laws against Muslims, Christians and Dalits among other minorities. These acts such as the withdrawal of Kashmir autonomy or Citizenship Amendment Act not only go against secular constitutionalism but have also empowered an emerging wave of Hindutva nationalism. Global monitors, including UN or Human Rights Watch, have repeatedly raised concerns over declining human rights in India. However, the reaction of New Delhi has been denial and disregard.

Worse still, is the transnational repression posed by India. The worst example was the assassination of the Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada and it is widely perceived to have been a plot by the Indian intelligence. The Canadian Prime Minister released the allegation to the general population. India reacted violently by denying and also expelled the diplomats, which is mind-blowing abuse of diplomatic conventions. The events rocked the western capitals indicating that India is ready to break the sovereignty in order to target those in exile. In the UK and in Australia, like accusations are beginning to come to light. It is not only that India is outgrowing its socks. It is running over the rule of law with them.

This undermining is currently reenacted on the international scene. Quiet resistances have been noticed in the efforts made by India in sabotaging the Indus Waters Treaty at the permanent court of arbitration, which is the foundation of water security in the region. The court keeps on deliberating on the matter, and it is not moved by the brinkmanship of New Delhi. In the meantime, it has not been lost on international community that the mention of Balochistan in Indian diplomatic rhetoric is part of an effort to defocus the discussion on Kashmir and that rhetoric is nothing more than smokescreen.

India has been too early in believing that its unquestionable primacy is the order of the day in the region. International system does not favor accidental hubris intended to congratulate a person but to welcome credible and responsible players. Throughout the last decades, Pakistan has weathered the storm of pressure due to its diplomatic, financial, and strategic survival. India, in its turn, seems to be misinterpreting the atmosphere of the multipolar world and lulls itself into attributing size with status and volume with voice.

What we are getting is not a fumble but a plan of unveiling. India efforts to isolate Pakistan has only showed that it is isolated. It is still a country with a lot of potential, granted, but that potential is becoming steadily compromised by wild ambitions, ideological blinders and an inability to deal with the world as an equal, without breaking the law.

In an attempt to take a dominant position as a leader in the region, India has emerged the most challenged player. It has been extravagant, ambitious and trumped its cards. The world is looking on, and more and more it is distancing itself.