Datafolha Poll Shows Flávio Bolsonaro Leading Lula Ahead of Brazil Runoff

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a narrow lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the latest Datafolha poll ahead of Brazil's October 25 runoff.

Editorial Desk

October 16, 2026 One Min Read

POLICY WIRE — Sao Paulo, Brazil — Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro holds a slim advantage over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as both candidates campaign for a decisive edge ahead of the upcoming presidential runoff election.

According to the latest findings released Thursday from a Datafolha public opinion survey, the right-wing senator is projected to secure 47% of the ballots against 45% for the incumbent president in a simulated matchup.

A previous survey conducted the week prior by the same polling organization indicated a wider margin for the conservative contender, who is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

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Brazil is moving toward an intense electoral showdown scheduled for October 25 after the conservative challenger surpassed expectations in the initial round by securing nearly two percentage points more than the incumbent last Sunday.

Prior to the first round of voting, the majority of pre-election surveys had consistently pointed toward a victory for Da Silva, though the sitting leader ultimately finished with 45.1% of the total vote.

Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)

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