Rivers of Conflict: The Weaponization of Water Between India and Pakistan

Water, a fundamental resource for life, has become a potent weapon in the geopolitical arena, particularly between India and Pakistan. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, brokered by the World Bank, was designed to manage the shared water resources of the Indus River System. However, the longstanding animosity and strategic interests between India and Pakistan, have turned water into a tool of political leverage, leading to what can be termed the weaponization of water politics.

The IWT allocated three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) to India and three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan, with India retaining limited usage rights over the western rivers for purposes such as irrigation, transport, and power generation. Despite this seemingly clear division, the interpretation and implementation of the Treaty has often led to disputes and accusations of water weaponization.

One prominent example is the Ravi River that flows into Pakistan from India. The construction of dams and barrages by India, such as the Ranjit Sagar Dam, has significantly reduced the flow of water into Pakistan, affecting agricultural activities and water availability. Pakistan has repeatedly expressed concerns that India’s infrastructural projects on the Ravi River, are designed to limit Pakistan’s water supply deliberately, thereby exerting pressure during times of political tensions.

In 2016, following a terrorist attack in Uri, Kashmir, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a statement that further escalated tensions: “Blood and water cannot flow together.” This remark underscored India’s potential strategy to use water as a lever against Pakistan. By implying that India could restrict water flow in retaliation for cross-border terrorism, Modi’s statement heightened fears in Pakistan of water being used as a geopolitical weapon.

The Chenab River presents another case study. The Baglihar Dam, constructed by India on the Chenab River, has been a point of contention. Pakistan claims that the dam violates the IWT by restricting water flow during critical agricultural periods, thereby harming Pakistani farmers and the broader agricultural sector. The dispute over the Baglihar Dam escalated to international arbitration, which eventually allowed India to proceed with the dam, albeit with certain modifications to ensure compliance with the treaty. Despite this resolution, the sense of mistrust lingers.

Another significant project that has raised concerns is the Kishanganga Hydroelectric Plant on the Jhelum River. Pakistan argues that the diversion of water for this plant reduces the flow into Pakistan, affecting its agriculture and hydroelectric power generation. The dispute over Kishanganga Project led Pakistan to seek arbitration under IWT, highlighting the ongoing tensions and mistrust on India’s water projects. Beyond individual projects, the broader strategy of India using water as a political tool against Pakistan is also seen as the rhetoric of various Indian leaders. Statements suggesting that India could leverage its control over water resources to pressure Pakistan have exacerbated fears of water weaponization. Such a rhetoric often arises during periods of heightened military or political tension, adding a layer of insecurity to the already fragile bilateral relationship.

India’s approach to water management on the shared rivers often involves maximizing its usage rights under the IWT, leading to extensive dam-building and water diversion projects. While India argues that water projects are within its rights and necessary for its own water security and development, Pakistan perceives those as direct threats to its water availability and agricultural economy. This perception is intensified by the asymmetry in power and technological capabilities between the two countries, with India having greater resources to implement large-scale water infrastructure projects.

According to Pakistani authorities, India’s plans to build up to 155 hydroelectric projects on the western rivers could significantly reduce water flow into Pakistan, potentially impacting millions of hectares of arable land. This has raised alarms in Pakistan about its future water security, especially considering that agriculture constitutes about 24% of Pakistan’s GDP and employs nearly half of its workforce. The potential reduction in water flow could lead to severe agricultural losses and exacerbate food insecurity.
The weaponization of water is not merely a bilateral issue but has broader regional implications. The Himalayan glaciers, which feed the rivers of the Indus Basin, are receding due to climate change. This environmental challenge exacerbates the water scarcity issue, making cooperative water management even more critical. However, the prevailing mistrust and the use of water as a strategic tool, hinder meaningful cooperation and joint management efforts.

Addressing the weaponization of water politics requires rebuilding trust and enhancing transparency between India and Pakistan. Both countries need to engage in sustained dialogue and confidence-building measures to ensure that water resources are managed equitably and sustainably. Strengthening the mechanisms of IWT to address contemporary challenges, like climate change and increased water demand, is essential.

International involvement may also play a role in mitigating this conflict. Neutral third parties or international organizations could facilitate dialogue and help monitor water usage and treaty compliance, ensuring that both nations adhere to their commitments. Moreover, promoting joint water management initiatives and technological exchanges could help both countries better manage their shared water resources.

In nutshell, the water has become a strategic asset in the India-Pakistan conflict, with both countries viewing it through the lens of national security and survival. The examples of the Ravi and Chenab rivers illustrate the complexities and sensitivities involved in managing shared water resources. Moving forward, it is imperative for India and Pakistan to move beyond the weaponization of water politics and work towards a cooperative framework that ensures the equitable and sustainable use of their shared water resources. The stakes are too high for both nations to allow water to become a weapon of war; instead, it should be a source of life and cooperation.