As Taiwan prepares for its largest-ever Han Kuang military drills, simulating various defense scenarios, China is ramping up its own military activity in the region. Both countries are increasingly positioning themselves for a possible conflict, with China conducting the “Strait Thunder 2025A” exercises, featuring warships, aircraft carriers, and long-range bombers in an effort to project power. These military drills are not just training exercises- they are signals of potential escalation, with profound implications for the stability of the Taiwan Strait and the broader Indo-Pacific region.
Taiwan’s drills, focused on countering an invasion, cyberattacks, and missile strikes, are seen as defensive measures, aiming to demonstrate resilience against Chinese threats. But China’s military presence in the region has become more pronounced, and Taiwan’s efforts to bolster its defense capabilities seem to only amplify the tensions.
The Geopolitical Context: Taiwan’s Vulnerability and China’s Ambitions
Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China (ROC), has been in a precarious diplomatic position for decades. Although it operates as a sovereign entity with its own government, military, and economy, it is recognized by only a few countries globally, largely due to China’s staunch opposition. Beijing considers Taiwan a part of its territory and has long advocated for reunification, by force if necessary.
While Taiwan has maintained a policy of de facto independence, it continues to face significant external pressure, particularly from China, which has recently increased its military operations near the island. The U.S. and its allies, such as Japan and Australia, have stepped up their support for Taiwan, most notably through arms sales and military cooperation, including joint defense exercises. This growing involvement from external powers has led to fears of a potential escalation into direct conflict.
For Taiwan, the annual Han Kuang military drills are a vital demonstration of its preparedness to defend itself. The drills, which simulate a variety of scenarios- ranging from aerial attacks to missile defense and cyber warfare- are not just about military readiness. They are also a clear signal to China and the international community that Taiwan is committed to its own security, despite growing threats from Beijing.
Deterrence and Realism: The Theory Behind Taiwan’s Strategy
From a theoretical perspective, Taiwan’s defense strategy is based on principles of deterrence and realism. Deterrence theory suggests that the presence of strong defenses- whether through military forces, alliances, or other measures- can prevent adversaries from taking aggressive actions. In Taiwan’s case, the goal is to make any Chinese military action too costly, both in terms of military resources and geopolitical fallout.
Realism, a dominant theory in international relations, emphasizes the role of power and survival in an anarchic international system. China’s military buildup is driven by the belief that a rising power must secure its borders and prevent any threats to its territorial integrity. Taiwan, on the other hand, focuses on maintaining enough defensive capability to prevent Chinese aggression and preserve its de facto independence.
However, the delicate balance of deterrence can also create risks. As Taiwan strengthens its defenses and as the U.S. increases its involvement in the region, China is likely to see these actions as provocations. In turn, China has ramped up its own military exercises and has repeatedly warned Taiwan against any moves towards formal independence. The growing military presence on both sides only exacerbates the potential for miscalculations or accidental conflict.
Legal Frameworks: Sovereignty, Territorial Integrity, and International Law
The legal situation surrounding Taiwan is complex and largely unresolved. Taiwan operates as a sovereign state in practice, with its own government, military, and elections. Under the Montevideo Convention (1933), Taiwan meets the criteria for statehood: a permanent population, defined territory, government, and capacity to engage in international relations. Despite this, Taiwan’s lack of broad diplomatic recognition- partly due to pressure from China- limits its ability to fully participate in international legal systems.
In terms of international law, the United Nations Charter (Article 2(4)) prohibits the use of force or the threat of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state. However, China contends that Taiwan is part of its territory, so any military action would be seen by Beijing as an internal matter, not a violation of international law. This position complicates legal discourse and prevents meaningful international intervention under the current legal frameworks.
In the maritime realm, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) permits freedom of navigation, but China’s military exercises near Taiwan- particularly its simulated blockades- can be seen as violating the spirit of international maritime law. As China increasingly extends its territorial claims in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, its activities challenge established norms and raise concerns about regional security and freedom of passage.
Strategic Implications: A Broader Impact on Regional and Global Stability
The tension in the Taiwan Strait has far-reaching implications. The island is a critical hub in global supply chains, especially in the semiconductor industry, where Taiwan is home to TSMC, the world’s largest manufacturer of advanced microchips. Any disruption to Taiwan’s economy- whether through a blockade or military action- would have a ripple effect across industries worldwide, triggering economic instability.
Beyond economics, Taiwan’s security has become a cornerstone of U.S.-China rivalry. The U.S. continues to follow a policy of strategic ambiguity, maintaining support for Taiwan’s defense while not committing to direct military intervention. This ambiguity is intended to deter both China from attacking and Taiwan from declaring formal independence, thus maintaining a fragile peace. However, with both sides continuing to increase military pressure, this delicate balance is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.
As Taiwan ramps up its defense capabilities and China continues to assert its claims over the island, the risk of escalation remains high. The involvement of other regional powers, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia, further complicates the situation. What happens in the Taiwan Strait may not stay there- it has the potential to reshape international security dynamics, especially in the Indo-Pacific.
The Taiwan situation is a critical test for international security, where theory, law, and strategy collide. Taiwan’s military preparations are designed to deter China, but they also risk provoking further aggression. Meanwhile, China’s growing military presence in the region challenges the stability of the international legal order and raises questions about the future of territorial integrity in the modern world. As tensions mount, the international community must prioritize diplomatic efforts to prevent conflict. The delicate balance of power, law, and diplomacy must be managed carefully to avoid a devastating escalation in the Taiwan Strait.
