Once bitter Cold War adversaries, Pakistan and Russia have, in recent years, forged a partnership grounded in shared economic interests and regional cooperation. This transformation has been largely driven by Pakistan’s pivot to geo-economics, as outlined in its National Security Policy 2021, which prioritizes economic relationships over bloc politics. The warming of ties has unlocked new avenues for bilateral trade, energy cooperation, and strategic collaboration, all aimed at securing mutual benefits for both nations.
Expanding Trade Opportunities
At the heart of this evolving relationship is Pakistan’s ambition to expand its trade with Russia, particularly to facilitate access to the resource-rich but landlocked Central Asian Republics. A major step in this direction was taken in September 2024, when Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk visited Islamabad to discuss deepening economic ties. Connectivity was a key focus during the talks, with plans to develop rail and road networks to enhance trade routes between Pakistan and Russia. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister emphasized integrating regional infrastructure through the North-South Transport Corridor and linking it with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). He also proposed cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and discussed the potential for a free trade agreement between Pakistan and the EAEU, a prospect welcomed by Pakistan’s leadership. This was followed by a delegation led by Pakistan’s privatization minister in October 2024, comprising more than 60 businesspersons, to attend the inaugural trade and investment forum in Moscow. The companies in the delegation represent a combined export value of over $500 million, underscoring Pakistan’s push for stronger trade engagement with Russia.
Strengthening Energy Cooperation
Energy cooperation has become a cornerstone of Pakistan-Russia relations, with both countries making significant strides in this area. Amid rising global fuel costs, Pakistan has increasingly turned to Russia for more affordable energy solutions. In April 2022, Pakistan made a pivotal shift by purchasing discounted Russian crude oil, traditionally relying on Middle Eastern suppliers. This was followed by the receipt of 100,000 metric tons of Russian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in September 2023, solidifying their energy partnership. Additionally, Russia has shown interest in joint ventures with Pakistan’s Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) and is exploring participation in offshore oil and gas exploration, marking the potential for expanded energy collaboration between the two nations.
For Russia, which faces Western sanctions in the wake of the Ukraine war, these deals represent an opportunity to diversify its energy markets by pivoting toward the Global South. The sanctions have severely curtailed Russia’s ability to sell energy to Europe, prompting Moscow to seek new partners in regions like South Asia. For Pakistan, this partnership has offered a lifeline, easing its chronic energy shortages while helping it diversify its energy imports at competitive rates. Given the growing energy demand in Pakistan, this cooperation is expected to deepen in the coming years, with more oil and gas deals on the horizon.
A New Strategic Alignment
The improving ties between Pakistan and Russia also reflect a broader regional realignment in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. As both Moscow and Beijing seek to fill the power vacuum left by the United States, Pakistan finds itself strategically well-positioned to benefit from this shift. Russia’s growing interest in South Asia, coupled with its ambitions to expand influence in Central Asia, aligns well with Pakistan’s geo-economic vision. By acting as a conduit for trade between Russia and Central Asia, Pakistan can enhance its role in regional connectivity and economic integration.
Multilateral Cooperation
Besides trade and energy, both nations are expanding their cooperation in multilateral forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), where they share common regional interests. Russia’s Prime Minister is set to visit Pakistan for the SCO Council of Heads of Government meeting in the upcoming week, a move that will likely further bolster bilateral ties. In addition, the ninth session of the Pakistan-Russia Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economy, Science, and Technology, scheduled to be held in Russia later this year, highlights the broadening scope of their collaboration.
Navigating Economic Challenges
While these developments offer significant opportunities, they are also shaped by Pakistan’s ongoing economic challenges. The South Asian nation narrowly avoided a sovereign debt default in 2023, thanks to a $3 billion financial assistance package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF followed up with a $7 billion bailout deal, contingent on Pakistan implementing sound economic policies and reforms to stabilize its fragile economy. As part of these efforts, Pakistan has sought to diversify its trade partnerships and secure new sources of investment, with Russia playing a key role in this strategy.
Despite Western sanctions, Pakistan has carefully navigated its relationship with Russia, ensuring it remains aligned with international financial systems while pursuing its own geo-economic goals. This balancing act reflects Islamabad’s desire to move beyond the rigid geopolitical alliances of the past and focus on building partnerships that offer tangible economic benefits. This shift has allowed Pakistan to engage with Russia on terms that prioritize its own economic development while staying clear of entangling itself in geopolitical rivalries.
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