If someone picks up a book documenting the recent decades as they unfolded in the Middle East, he/she might almost be convinced that the region is synonymous with lingering conflicts in which brute force was employed with impunity with the nod from big powers. Gaza story is no different with the exception that the ease with which Hamas could infiltrate would continue to remain a topic for discussion amongst those who have even a basic understanding of the security mechanism that Israel employs to safeguard its borders. The only disappointment for US, Israel, and their cronies was the failure to equate it with 9/11 and extract the similar sympathy and solidarity with the UN member countries.
The world, perhaps, has become much wiser having seen the fate of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya.
Israel’s disproportionate bombings in Gaza continue as the representatives of the majority of the countries sit down and try hard to reach a United Nations-mandated resolution that can be implemented to secure a permanent ceasefire. Although, Israel with its characteristic arrogance, has asked for the resignation of UN Secretary General, but as more and more votes pile up in favor of the ceasefire, Israel and its allies might begin to feel the pressure to end the carnage that finds no parallel in the annals of modern history.
Before moving any further, it is important to dig out the dividends that Hamas would reap out of this attack in which apparently there was no defensive or counter offensive plan. The logic of stalling the peace process between Arab and few other nations with Israel might not stand the test of time in future because the ultimate solution of this prolonged issue will require normalization of relations as a pre-requisite, which will be welcomed by most of the countries with the exception of Syria. So if this cannot be a sufficient logic for the attack, what other strategic dividends can be drawn from this conflict where deportation of entire population to an adjacent land is staring in the face?
As much as the Abraham Accords are the face of Arab-Israel normalization, the Gaza offensive of Israel may not be intended to reverse that status quo as it suits Israel. But this war and the corresponding reaction in the Muslim world has erected a wall in the way of the highly anticipated normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Not just that, the expansion of the accords to other Arab states also appears to be a far-fetched reality for now. What matters the most right now is for the Arab countries to keep calling for a ceasefire; this will continue to be the principled, uncontested stance of the Arab and Islamic world on Palestine. This was exactly the agenda when Saudi Arabia hosted the Arab-Islamic Emergency Summit in Riyadh in November last year. This is the least that can be done. It will not bring back the lives lost but at least save a whole generation of Palestinians from further misery.
Syria, which does not figure directly in this war, still constitutes a very important player as its further destabilization can have unintended consequence for the Middle East.
Therefore, this Summit deserves a special mention because Syria’s President, Bashar al-Assad, was also invited. Syria’s membership in the Arab League suspended for over eleven years was restored just this year as Saudi Arabia started cozying up with the Assad-led regime in the country. Syria remains a strong critic of Israel and perhaps one such Arab country which will not even be the last to enter the Abraham Accords or any other similar arrangement. MBS gesture towards Syria can be seen as the offshoot of restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Gaza situation, however, brings all these developments into a tight spot and despite the major Arab countries showing restraint, the beating that the Palestinian resistance have taken will keep the fears roaring.
Though Syria is far from being stable, the Assad-led regime that controls the majority of the land has rather been more passive about the Israel-Gaza situation. Israel bombed Damascus and Aleppo airports to make them dysfunctional for any possible weapons supply chain from Iran via Syria into the hands of Hamas. The unprovoked Israel’s attack did not garner any aggressive response. As a matter of fact, neither Iran nor Hezbollah have shown any signaling towards aggression. There can only be two possible explanations; either they have gauged their strengths and found them inadequate, since Biden with aircraft carrier deployment is too keen to bomb any outside powers, or they have seen the ploy to embroil them in the conflict.
So what is the Middle East actually thinking?
Though the Arab countries are not fighting this war directly, they are weary of this battlefront blocking the way of a forward-looking approach.
It seems Israel’s war with Palestinians has become tiresome for the region. Take Saudi Arabia, for example. Muhammad Bin Salman is so keen on pulling out of protracted, indecisive conflicts that he is ready to reach a peace deal with Yemen.
For Syria itself, which was looking for eventual US withdrawal from its only oil rich area and the Turkish abandoning its 15km border belt, the Israel-Gaza situation could have not come at a more wrong time. The protracted Israel’s war on Gaza may hit any fault line within Syria as it is easy to arouse passions in the rebel held areas where revolutionary ideals are still popular. Over the years, Assad regime has lost its military power and in the absence of oil revenues, it is impossible to regain any worth-while prowess. For Assad’s regime, keeping the territory that it has and taking control of the land that it does not have are the two major survival concerns. If a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, there would be one less thing to worry about.
On both moral as well as strategic grounds, the war in Gaza is a wholly undesirable reality for the Middle East. An ocean of displaced Syrians reminds the Arab countries that there should not be any more displacements. But the war stares them in the face and asks, how to avoid it? No one seems to know the answer but a passive stare is this region’s response to an unjust war being imposed on an innocent civilian population. Gaza reminds us of how deeply the seeds of discord have been sown. The Middle East grapples with the shock of artificial borders, fault lines, power proxies, imposed battle fronts, settler colonialism, and apocalyptic bombing until a ceasefire brings some ease.
This brings us to the last question that what are the strategic designs of Israel. Construction of Ben Gurion canal and extracting oil and gas from Gaza are too obvious to be accomplished in such a brutal way. Displacement of Gaza’s population to Sanai and shifting Hamas to Lebanon are similarly fraught with perils. Ben Gurion canal may end up very close to Saudi Neom city but it marks the end of whatever little prosperity Egypt enjoys. What gives strength to such theories is constant bombardment of Palestinians where Israel knows very well that the victims are mostly children and women.
People have started recalling Yasser Arafat’s statement where he accused Israel of sponsoring or backing Hamas as a counter force to Palestinian Liberation Organization.
The revelations that Israel permitted channeling 2 billion dollars to Hamas from Qatar from 2015 onwards are equally chilling. It would not be too far when the pieces in this Jigsaw puzzle will start to fall in place but it might bring results that are too destabilizing for the region in the future.
All the players – Americans, Israelis, Saudis, are even hiding from each other. Relationships and intentions are becoming too complex to predict an end or how the situation will resolve. Nothing can be said with certainty. Iran’s trajectory with the United States is difficult to gauge. Who wants to make war and who wants to avoid it is unfolding in the middle. This all is coinciding with national elections in many countries including the Presidential elections in the United States. And amidst all the chaos, the exhaustion of resources and that of humans from war stands tall.
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