Enduring Chaos

Mankind’s greed and lust for power have historically justified territorial disputes, civil wars, transnational terrorism, and non-state conflicts. Behind every war and disturbance is a power seeking to exploit and control more resources, even at the cost of inflicting untold misery on others. Regrettably, even nations deemed peaceful can become entangled in conflicts beyond their borders because of ‘national interests’. This is a testament to human ingenuity in crafting chaos and despair. Just about a century ago, humanity witnessed two terrible world wars that resulted in 120 million deaths, including those from war-related famine and diseases. We learnt nothing. Consider our context: during the partition of India in 1947, two million people perished during an unprecedented migration that uprooted 15 million people in total. In the following decades, two million Afghan civilians were killed in the Soviet-Afghan and US-led wars in Afghanistan, along with 15,000 Soviet soldiers, 2,448 US troops, 1,144 coalition troops, and 42,000 Afghan soldiers. These conflicts devastated Afghanistan and severely affected Pakistan. More than 150 armed conflicts still erupt worldwide each year, even though it is believed that we are living in one of the most peaceful times in history. One often wonders how devastating more ‘turbulent’ times would have been if this era were to be considered ‘peaceful’. Recent devastating conflicts, including the Israeli assault on Gaza, the war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, the fighting in Sudan, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the ongoing crisis in Syria, have extended beyond immediate violence and are now laying the groundwork for future violent clashes. All these wars have significantly influenced international relations, compelling nations to align with one side or another. Meanwhile, with the global nuclear weapons inventory estimated at around 12,100 warheads as of early 2024, the threat of Armageddon looms larger than ever before. The present and future fallout from these conflicts is and will be severe. Victims, whether acting alone or in groups, will be likely to seek vengeance, perpetuating a cycle of violence. There will probably be a new wave of terrorism in the aftermath of these ongoing conflicts.
The global community’s seeming indifference to this threat is exacerbating the situation. It is now almost a fact of life that extreme violence can be used outside traditional war zones as well. Pakistan has been a victim of this. Terrorism, a lethal substitute of war for hegemony, vengeance, or ideological struggle, continues to impact us in myriad ways. Since the 1980s, this scourge has inflicted immense direct and indirect losses, amounting to approximately $123.13 billion in economic and human costs. Despite ten military operations and daily ‘encounters’, we are still questioning why this menace refuses to go away. Pakistan’s dismal rankings in various global indices reflect a nation grappling with profound political instability and poor governance. The country ranks 164th out of 193 in the Human Development Index, 140th out of 180 in the Corruption Perceptions Index, 108th out of 190 in Ease of Doing Business, 150th out of 180 in Freedom of Press, 110th out of 140 in the Global Competitiveness Report, 142nd out of 146 in the Global Opportunity Index, 99th out of 121 in the Global Hunger Index, 85th out of 144 in the Safety and Crime Index, and 130th out of 142 in the Rule of Law Index. Clearly, the persistent threat of violence has reshaped our society and influenced national policies, economic activity, and daily lives. We are gripped in chaos, with little realization of the urgent need for improved governance, political stability and reform to improve our standing and secure a better future for our citizens. The lesson is already overdue.
Notwithstanding the many insights that have been gained into global terrorism, policymakers continue to ignore proven strategies. The Global Terrorism Index 2024 highlights socio-political instability and fiscal disparity as key drivers. Norman Loayza’s work stresses social inclusion and addressing socio-economic factors to prevent extremism. Brian Forst’s “Terrorism, Crime, and Public Policy” emphasizes improving governance, reducing economic disparities, and enhancing education to mitigate terrorism’s root and sustaining causes. However, none of this is possible without strengthening international cooperation, intelligence sharing, and learning to stay away from others’ rivalries. Political agendas, short-term focus, and lack of coordination continue to hinder the adoption of effective policies. Worse still, governments and non-state groups have started misusing the term “terrorism” to denounce rival factions and advance various political agendas. Amidst such distractions, extremism continues to manifest violently in religious, sectarian, and ethnic forms, while pervasive class and gender extremism destabilize communities socially, creating deep-seated unrest and widespread disruption. We also do not seem to realize that the new waves of extremism are leveraging technology, digital platforms and international networks to spread their reach. There are now approximately 65 non-state actors equipped with advanced drone technology, for example. These escalating challenges beg the question: Are we aware of the looming and ongoing threats? Are we prepared, and do we have robust strategies in place? Our current state suggests otherwise. In Pakistan, for instance, we are still awaiting accountability for those who nurtured the proxies that later turned into our Frankenstein’s monsters. We rejoiced over the Taliban’s return to Afghanistan, allowed them into our territory, and are now once again using brutal force to counter. This is the climax of the failure of our policies. Wouldn’t it be nice to have some accountability and follow proven strategies for a change? Within global conflicts and wars, Pakistan must understand its internal dynamics and ensure that it has a pragmatic plan to eradicate chaos and restore normalcy. We must win the hearts and minds of BLA insurgents, while a better law enforcement and governance approach is needed to deal with the TTP, which is, essentially, a criminal outfit. In the riverine no-go areas, political expediency must be done away with. Sadly, our criminal justice system is unpredictable and slow, which allows impunity for offenders. Meanwhile, religious bigotry continues to be tolerated as a means of appeasement. The bottom line is that a lack of professionalism continues to mar our reputation and performance.