Post-Hasina Bangladesh: Is Pakistan Up To The Task?

It took more than 560 innocent lives for the “Student Revolution” in Bangladesh to succeed. After weeks of bloody protests, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was left with no option but to flee the country and take refuge in India on August 5, 2024. Her authoritarian rule spanning over 15 years, bedizened in the garb of democracy, came to a sudden end.

India, which had the best partner in Sheikh Hasina in Dhaka, was literally shocked and found itself in a cleft stick. Whereas on the one hand, it was difficult to deny the former Prime Minister shelter in India as no other country was willing to accept her. On the other hand, New Delhi did not want the people of Bangladesh to be further alienated.

It nevertheless remains to be seen how developments finally pan out. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) of Khaleda Zia (also a former Prime Minister) is already urging India to extradite Sheikh Hasina. Besides, some Bangladeshi experts are talking about taking the bilateral water disputes to relevant international forums for arbitration should India continue to be unfair and inflexible.

No sooner had the Sheikh Hasina government collapsed, the heavily biased Indian media started hatching frivolous conspiracy theories impugning Pakistan for orchestrating Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. What could be termed as a non sequitur, China and the United States were also accused of machinations against Sheikh Hasina in their respective strategic interests. This head-spinning spin only served to further infuriate Bangladeshis, for they saw in this a blatant attempt to belittle their enormous sacrifices against a “fascist regime”.

Some Bangladeshi experts are talking about taking the bilateral water disputes to relevant international forums for arbitration should India continue to be unfair and inflexible.

In Pakistan, however, the historic development was received with much exultation and the sense of poetic justice. That was understandable. It was Sheikh Hasina’s father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who conspired with India to create Bangladesh by splitting Pakistan in 1971. As the irony would have it, the “Father of the Nation” was killed on 15 August 1975. And in August 2024, the whole world witnessed how his statues across Bangladesh were vandalized. The interim government that sworn in with Dr Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel laureate, as its head, on 8 August, lost no time in declaring to discontinue commemorating the annual National Mourning Day on 15 August.

Sheikh Hasina could have moved on but she preferred to remain stuck in a time warp when it came to Pakistan. Unlike other Bangladeshi politicians, she was mostly impervious to Pakistan’s genuine desire to start afresh in the spirit of the 9th April 1974 agreement signed between Bangladesh, India and Pakistan in New Delhi. The three countries had agreed to forgive and forget the mistakes of the past in order to promote reconciliation.

While from Pakistan’s viewpoint there was nothing left to be settled between the two countries, Sheikh Hasina kept on insisting that Pakistan must formally apologize for “all the crimes Pakistan committed against the people of Bangladesh”. Members of her party (Awami League) would also publicly demand to put on trial some 195 army officers who had allegedly perpetrated atrocities in the erstwhile East Pakistan. In short, Sheikh Hasina would not budge. No wonder, she never paid a bilateral visit to Pakistan during her long years in office.

On its part, Pakistan never gave up trying how to accommodate Bangladesh. In July 2002, President Pervez Musharraf paid a three-day official visit to Bangladesh. During the visit he publicly regretted the 71 war excesses. After laying wreath at the National Martyrs Memorial outside Dhaka, he wrote in the official visitors’ book as follows: “Your brother and sisters in Pakistan share the pains of the events of 1971. The excesses committed during the unfortunate period are regrettable. Let us bury the past in the spirit of magnanimity. Let us move forward together. Courage to compromise is greater than to confront.”

On its part, Pakistan never gave up trying how to accommodate Bangladesh.

This proffered the best way forward and the then Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Khaleda Zia, had apparently decided to let bygones be bygones. That helped. Years of bonhomie followed. However, when Sheikh Hasina came to power again in 2009, she could not help but revive the apology issue. Resultantly, the bilateral relationship yet again came under pressure. She visibly and unhelpfully became Modi’s junior partner. Even SAARC was not spared. Its 19th summit that was to be hosted by Pakistan in November 2014 had to be postponed as India refused to attend, making the 18 September 2014 Uri attack as an alibi. Bangladesh along with Afghanistan also regretted to attend.

When Sheikh Hasina came to power again in 2009, she could not help but revive the apology issue.

I had the opportunity to have a brief conversation with Sheikh Hasina at the residence of the Bangladeshi High Commissioner in New Delhi during her official visit to India in April 2017. Besides conveying greetings to her from the Pakistani leadership, I told her that the people of Pakistan were also keenly looking forward to hosting her. She did not respond except to express the hope that I was enjoying my stay in India. In fact, she never wanted to pay a bilateral visit to Pakistan. She clearly made the bilateral relations hostage to the apology issue. Perhaps, the word “regret” and that, too, during Khaleda Zia’s premiership, was difficult for her to digest.

Be that as it may, Sheikh Hasina is no longer at the helm. Though in politics nothing is impossible, it may be a safe wager to say that it seems highly unlikely that she would ever return to power again. There is now an opportunity for Pakistan to reach out to Bangladesh, putting bilateral ties on a positive irreversible trajectory.

The most important thing Pakistan needs to understand is that Bangladesh-India relations are mutually critical. Islamabad must not get concerned if their relations come back on track. Diplomacy mostly works incrementally; the slow process needs patience and perseverance. To expect quick results would be a wishful thinking. Islamabad must not get carried away either by taking premature steps. It should also avoid seeing as pandering to Bangladesh and joining hands against India. There is still no clarity how long the present interim government will be in power. For one, I do not see elections taking place in Bangladesh this year.

The most important thing Pakistan needs to understand is that Bangladesh-India relations are mutually critical.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s felicitations to Chief Advisor Yunus were in order. His subsequent letter to the latter assuring him of every possible assistance to the people of Bangladesh to cope with the destruction caused by heavy floods was also the right thing to do. As Prime Minister Sharif underlined, Pakistan would always be standing with the people of Bangladesh. It is encouraging that the Bangladesh cricket team did not cancel its trip and is presently in Pakistan for a two-test matches series. The warm welcome the Bangladeshi team received from all and sundry in Pakistan will go a long way towards promoting mutual goodwill.

Some analysts in Pakistan are suggesting that Islamabad must send a special emissary to Bangladesh. To them, the time is of the essence. Pakistan must not let this opportunity go. I have been propounding for the appointment of a special envoy for Bangladesh for years now. But in my view, this not the appropriate time to do so. Islamabad must keep a low profile and let the Pakistan High Commissioner in Dhaka handle the matters at this stage.

Rather than focusing on politics, it may be worthwhile for Islamabad to consider sending an economic and trade delegation to Dhaka. That will not only be good optics but also convey our sincere intentions to work in our mutual benefit. Pakistan can also consider engaging in bilateral sports activities beyond cricket.

Yunus will likely travel to New York this September for the UNGA session. Islamabad must seek a bilateral meeting. The meeting, should it come through, would require extremely careful preparations both in terms of optics and substance. Needless to say that excessive and empty rhetoric is a burden diplomacy barely brooks for long.

Hopefully, Islamabad is up to the task in the case of Bangladesh unlike Afghanistan post-August 15, 2021.