India’s European Defence Pivot: Fueling a New Arms Race in South Asia

South Asia today is witnessing an alarming acceleration of military modernization, and India is emerging as its most aggressive driver. In a region already marked by mistrust and unresolved disputes, New Delhi’s defence pivot toward European partners is reshaping the regional security equation, with potentially destabilizing consequences.

In recent months, India has deepened ties with France’s Safran and the UK’s Rolls-Royce to co-develop next-generation jet engines for its Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program, a $7 billion stealth fighter initiative. While this is framed as technological progress, the context reveals a far more troubling story: an urgent, unilateral pursuit of military dominance. India’s pivot to Europe comes amid delays from American suppliers and a worrying spike in aviation mishaps, both civilian and military, over the last quarter. With questions around safety and operational readiness mounting, India’s race for high-tech imports seems more like posturing than preparation.

This shift is also geopolitical. India’s traditional dependency on Russia is shrinking. As per Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia’s share in India’s defence imports declined from 55% in 2015–2019 to 36% in 2020–2024. Although Moscow remains India’s largest supplier, its growing proximity to Pakistan, alongside the impact of the Ukraine war, has pushed New Delhi toward the West. But instead of promoting stability, India has acquired systems like the Russian S-400 and BrahMos missile, deployed during a four-day skirmish with Pakistan in May 2025, to showcase its offensive capabilities.

Despite operating just 31 squadrons out of the 42 approved, the Indian Air Force is expanding through foreign partnerships rather than investing in de-escalation or training. This shortage, equivalent to nearly 200 aircraft, has not prompted introspection. Instead, India is doubling down on the AMCA and Tejas programs, seeking speed over strategy. Experts have repeatedly warned: without adequate pilot training, simulation infrastructure, and logistical readiness, a military buildup risks becoming structurally hollow. In India’s case, it signals optics over substance, deterrence over dialogue.

Europe’s appeal lies in its flexibility. While the US remains hesitant to transfer core defence technologies, firms like Safran and Rolls-Royce have been more forthcoming. According to British analyst Christopher Blackburn, this reflects “real trust” between India and its partners. But trust isn’t the only motive. India is choosing collaborators based on how much control it can extract over design and production. This aggressive drive for technological sovereignty is not just about defense, it’s about regional domination and such dominance invites reaction. For countries like Pakistan and China, India’s moves are not isolated developments; they trigger reciprocal military investments, deepening the region’s security dilemma.

US President Donald Trump’s proposal to sell F-35 fighter jets to India, priced between $80 million and $109 million each, was seen more as a symbolic gesture than a practical offer. Indian analysts like Vivek Mishra doubt the deal’s viability due to cost and lack of tech transfer. Still, such offers highlight a broader shift: Western states are increasingly using defence deals as tools of alignment, while India uses them to gain global leverage. But when this comes at the cost of domestic inequality and regional peace, critical questions arise about the ethics of India’s militarization spree.

What remains largely unspoken is India’s weak military training architecture. From pilot shortages to a lack of simulators and minimal real-time battlefield exposure, India’s armed forces are struggling to integrate the systems they are acquiring. Without sustained investment in human capital and logistics, these acquisitions risk becoming symbolic rather than strategic. This imbalance reflects a deeper motive: projecting power, not building peace, especially towards Pakistan.

India’s militarization is also being recast as self-reliance. Over the past decade, defence exports have risen thirty-fold, while imports dropped from 11% to 4%. Retired Lt. Gen. A.B. Shivane celebrates this shift, but it marks India’s emergence not just as an importer, but as an arms proliferator in a fragile region. With rising exports and an insatiable domestic appetite for weaponry, India is evolving into a militarized hub, a transformation that risks locking the region into perpetual insecurity.

India claims its defence buildup is for national security but the pace, partnerships, and political narratives surrounding it reveal something more assertive, and dangerous. As its neighbours seek balance, India is choosing belligerence. If left unchallenged, this pivot could transform South Asia’s future from cooperation to confrontation.