Pentagon Bans Military Personnel From Using Nonpublic Data on Prediction Markets

POLICY WIRE — Washington, United States — Defense Secretary Hegseth issued a directive banning Department of Defense personnel from utilizing nonpublic information to place bets on American military operations.

Distributed on Oct. 20 to senior Pentagon leadership and combatant commanders, the memorandum covers both classified and unclassified data. It explicitly names prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

The defense chief cautioned that financial speculations involving military outcomes risk revealing sensitive operational maneuvers to foreign adversaries while threatening the safety of American troops.

Make no mistake why this matters. Our enemies watch movements in these markets, Hegseth wrote. When an American Service member, intelligence professional, or other Department civilian engages in a financial transaction on a military outcome, they create a signal.

Hegseth cautioned that foreign intelligence agencies might scrutinize wagering trends to forecast U.S. troop deployments, operational targets, and timing schedules. According to the memorandum, breaches may lead to administrative discipline or criminal prosecution under federal law or the Uniform Code of Military Justice.

This mandate arrives amid escalating oversight regarding service members engaging in military-focused prediction platforms. In April, a U.S. Special Forces soldier linked to the mission that detained Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro faced arrest for allegedly wagering on the removal before the raid became public.

Federal investigators allege that U.S. Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke placed wagers exceeding $33,000 on Polymarket shortly after President Trump announced the capture of Maduro in January. Those wagers generated payouts exceeding $409,000.

The soldier entered a not guilty plea in a New York federal court.

Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)