The Myth of India’s Rise: Oman Exposes New Delhi’s Strategic Failure

For years, India has been pedaling to the world the music of a vision of itself as a rising power, indispensable in international affairs, and natural leader in South Asia. It has been endlessly talking of “strategic autonomy”, and its media has been exulting in every diplomatic handshake as an evidence of India’s coming to the world stage.

This is a different story altogether off the coast of Oman.

In the span of days, New Delhi had to call the United States’ top official two times back due to the attack on the commercial vessels carrying Indian sailors. In one case, it is reported that three Indian crew members were killed, followed by another ship with 20 Indian sailors being attacked. It is a humiliation that goes back many years of statesmanship through propaganda and India was forced to raise repeated diplomatic objections against its most strategic ally.

The episode highlights the basic inconsistency of Indian foreign policy. India’s aim is to emerge as a great power; however, it is becoming more of a subordinate in the geopolitical construct. Among all the talk of sovereignty and independence, all New Delhi has done is grumble about diplomacy and make some symbolic gestures.

This is India that constantly claims to be a champion of regional peace and stability. It is the very same India, which talks about responsibility to its neighbours and international norms. But, when Indian citizens are killed, New Delhi seems helpless.

The truth is that India’s foreign policy has become more and more reliant on outside endorsement. Over the years, successive Indian governments have poured significant resources into wooing leaders, sometimes heralding the bond as the fulcrum of India’s foreign policy. India’s cooperation in military affairs, sharing of intelligence, defence procurements and diplomatic backing have all been peddled in India as evidence of India’s growing stature.True greatness does not require constant approval and encouragement from others. Nor do they see themselves constantly voicing objections against the policies of the very states they say they follow.

The Oman crisis is all about perception, as many in the region have been guessing for a long time, Though this disconnect between words and deeds is nothing new. India often displays its “might” in the international world and then faces the challenge of converting it into diplomatic successes. It aims for regional leadership, but estranges neighbours. It is a remark on strategic independence yet ultimately it is becoming more and more aligned with the priorities of larger powers. Its purportedly a cause of sovereignty but it cannot defend itself when its interests are at odds with those of other there states.

What is perhaps the most interesting about the episode is the discrepancy between India’s words and actions. Indian officials are often belligerent towards its neighboring countries. Indian media frequently portrays India as an unstoppable geopolitical power that can help change the Asia strategic landscape.

But in times of crisis, this confidence evaporates. The rhetoric takes a back burner to cautious diplomacy. Instead of chest thumping comes formal protest. The self-proclaimed Giant is quite subdued.

The lesson is clear for all, Power isn’t about public relations campaigns. It isn’t about a costly lobbying effort, or about the enthusiastic headlines in the media. Power is judged on the basis of the capacity to defend the national interests, the national power, and the events in line with state objectives.

The Oman episode is certainly a black mark against India’s foreign policy by that metric.

By reacting in such a manner, New Delhi has not shown off its confidence as a new power, but rather the weakness of a state caught up in its ambitions and yet constrained by its realities. The episode has deflated a lot of India’s global rhetoric and made it clear that in spite of its self-assurance, India is hugely dependent on stronger powers and is increasingly restricted in its freedom of action.

The waters off Oman are thus no longer just a flashpoint for the sea. They serve as a reflection of what India’s strategic position is today. That’s a mirror that’s not reflecting confidence as a super power, but rather uncertainty as a state.

In all the slogans, summits and self-congratulation, it seems the nation of India in South Asian geopolitics has very little wardrobe than what its supporters hope the world to think.