POLICY WIRE FACT CHECK: Did Prices Rise More Under Biden Than Trump? A Deep Dive into the Viral Inflation Graphic
The Claim A viral Facebook graphic circulated widely in September 2026, asserting that the rate of inflation for 12 household goods and utilities rose more during President Joe Biden’s...
The Claim
A viral Facebook graphic circulated widely in September 2026, asserting that the rate of inflation for 12 household goods and utilities rose more during President Joe Biden’s administration than during President Donald Trump’s second term. The graphic claimed to show that prices increased significantly under Biden, with one user stating, "Inflation hit American families hard under Biden."
The graphic was shared across multiple platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, Threads, and TikTok. It also appeared on the Denton County Republican Party’s page in Texas. The visual presentation compared the full 48-month period of Biden’s presidency to only 20 months of Trump’s second term, which raised immediate concerns about the fairness of the comparison.
The Details & Investigation
Snopes, in collaboration with the PolicyWire Counter-Misinformation & Disinformation Desk, investigated the claims made in the graphic. The primary issue identified was the flawed time-period comparison. The graphic directly compared Biden’s full 48-month term to only 20 months of Trump’s second term, which is inherently unfair when measuring inflation over time. Inflation is typically measured as a percentage change over equal time intervals, making such a comparison invalid without proper context.
Furthermore, the graphic cited the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) as its source. However, upon attempting to replicate the figures using the BLS database, Snopes found that none of the data matched the numbers presented in the graphic. For example, the graphic claimed that natural gas prices rose significantly under Biden, but the BLS does not track natural gas in its CPI-U database. Additionally, the graphic did not specify whether it used seasonally adjusted data, which is standard practice in inflation analysis.
Another critical finding was that the graphic appeared to be entirely AI-generated. Pangram, an AI detection tool, flagged two versions of the graphic as fully synthetic. Facebook also marked the Denton County Republican Party’s post as AI content. While AI detection tools are not 100% reliable, this raises serious questions about the authenticity of the data and the intent behind the graphic. Whether the creators used AI to fabricate the data or simply to present it in a misleading way remains unclear.
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When comparing the actual CPI-U data for the first 20 months of both administrations, the findings were different from what the graphic suggested. According to the BLS, the rate of inflation was lower for 10 out of 12 products during the first 20 months of Trump’s second term compared to the same period under Biden. Moreover, the graphic misrepresented the data by claiming that inflation had risen for all items, while in reality, four of the items showed a decrease in price during Trump’s term.
Experts have pointed to the unique economic conditions during Biden’s presidency, particularly the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Brookings Institution noted that much of the inflation in 2021 and 2022 was driven by global commodity price surges and supply chain disruptions rather than fiscal policy. Meanwhile, research from MIT Sloan School of Management suggested that government spending during the pandemic played a significant role in the 2022 inflation spike. These factors complicate direct comparisons between the two presidencies and highlight the need for nuanced analysis of economic trends.
The Verdict
The viral graphic claiming that inflation rose more under Biden than under Trump is fundamentally flawed. The comparison was not fair, as it juxtaposed a full 48-month period with only 20 months of data. Additionally, the figures presented could not be replicated using the BLS CPI-U database, suggesting that the data was either fabricated or misinterpreted. The graphic also appears to be AI-generated, raising concerns about its authenticity and intent.
Given these findings, the claim falls under the category of DISINFORMATION. The deliberate use of an unfair time-frame, the absence of verifiable data, and the possible involvement of AI-generated content indicate a coordinated effort to mislead the public. While some elements of the claim may have been based on real data, the presentation was deceptive and designed to distort the truth about inflation trends.
Counter-misinformation & disinformation investigation conducted by PolicyWire Editorial Desk (PW).