Midterm Election Shift: How Economic Unrest and AI Risks Could Reshape Washington
As midterms approach, record inflation and AI-driven misinformation set the stage for a historic battle over the House and Senate control.
POLICY WIRE — Washington, D.C. — While the presidency is decided every four years, the upcoming midterms offer voters a chance to steer the nation’s trajectory by electing 435 House representatives, one-third of the Senate, and various governorships.
New Yorker columnist Susan Glasser views these contests primarily as a direct referendum on the current administration’s performance. She suggests the results on Tuesday could be historic, driven largely by the president’s declining popularity.
A central driver of voter anger is the rising cost of living. Glasser notes that public frustration is fueled by the price of groceries and gasoline, though the underlying issues extend far beyond simple household expenses.
Erika Fowler, a Wesleyan University professor who analyzes political spending, notes that this cycle will see record-breaking financial investment. Spending is projected to exceed $11 billion, yet Fowler questions if such massive advertising actually shifts public opinion regarding the struggling economy.
Another emerging threat is the surge of artificial intelligence in campaign media. Fowler warns that computer-generated videos can depict candidates saying or doing things that never actually occurred, creating a dangerous environment where viewers cannot verify the truth.
Because there are currently no federal regulations governing AI in advertising, many of these deceptive clips lack any disclaimer. Furthermore, Fowler points out that the rise of early voting means many current ads and rallies may already be too late to influence those who have already voted.
When asked what specific factors are driving voters, Glasser cites a combination of war, corruption, and energy prices. Data shows that two-thirds of respondents intend to vote in Congress either to support the president—at 26%—or oppose his policies, at 41%.
The president also presents a unique challenge for candidates. Some Republican advertisements avoid mentioning Trump entirely, while others, like one from Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers, explicitly call for ending the administration’s tariff disputes with Canada.
While the year began with little hope for Democrats in the Senate, Glasser observes that several traditionally red states have become increasingly competitive. This does not guarantee a Democratic victory, the political landscape is shifting.
The possibility of Democrats winning in Texas or Kansas is notable. Glasser highlights that Democrats have not won a Kansas Senate seat since the 1930s, and the last Democratic winner in Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
If Democrats secure control of both legislative chambers, Glasser anticipates efforts to limit Defense Department spending, particularly regarding the conflict with Iran. She also expects highly aggressive oversight hearings and the frequent use of subpoenas.
However, Glasser expresses immediate concern regarding the post-election period. Trump has stated he will not accept any results he believes were not conducted according to his standards.
Dismissing the idea that such concerns are merely speculative, Glasser notes that Trump is the only American president to ever refuse recognition of a legitimate election defeat. She suggests he and his allies may attempt to block or delay the certification of Senate members in narrow-margin races.
Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)
