Italy Faces Stark Population Decline by 2050, Warns National Statistics Bureau

POLICY WIRE — Rome, Italy — Italy is bracing for a significant population decline, with the national statistics bureau, ISTAT, warning that the country’s resident population will drop by nearly 4 million by 2050. This reduction will strain the nation’s economy and welfare system as the elderly demographic expands.

ISTAT’s latest demographic forecasts, which extend to 2080, indicate that Italy’s population will fall from 58.9 million in 2025 to 55 million by 2050, further decreasing to 45.8 million by 2080.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni identified increasing the birth rate as a key government priority upon taking office in 2022. However, her initiatives have yielded limited success. Births have been on a steady decline since 2008, reaching approximately 355,000 last year—the lowest since Italy’s unification in 1861. Meanwhile, deaths have risen as the population ages.

ISTAT projects that annual births will remain relatively stable until 2030 before dropping to 335,000 by 2050. Deaths are expected to increase from about 652,000 last year to a peak of 869,000 in 2058 as Italy’s post-war baby boom generation reaches old age.

The proportion of Italians aged 65 or over is anticipated to rise to 34.5% by 2050 from 24.7% in 2025. Conversely, the share of the working-age population, defined as those aged 15 to 64, will decline to 55.3% from 63.4%.

ISTAT highlighted that the shrinking workforce and increasing number of pensioners will present new challenges to the economic system and welfare.

The demographic decline will not be uniform across Italy. The southern regions, which are economically disadvantaged, are expected to experience the most significant losses, with the population falling from 19.7 million in 2025 to 16.7 million in 2050. Central and northern regions will see a more moderate decrease.

Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)