China Intensifies Diplomatic Push in Gulf Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

POLICY WIRE — Beijing, China — China has launched a rapid series of high-level meetings with leaders across the Gulf, signaling a significant effort to expand its footprint in the Middle East.

This surge surge activity occurs just days before a high-profile encounter between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The United States president is scheduled to participate in the Apec conference held in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19.

During a landmark state visit to the capital on Monday, President Xi held discussions with Sultan Haitham bin Tariq of Oman. This marks the first time an Omani head of state has traveled to China since the two nations formalized diplomatic ties nearly five decades ago.

In an official Chinese account of the visit, Xi cautioned that the Middle East must not become a stage for geopolitical conflict or rivalry between major powers. He stated that China remains dedicated to ending hostilities and fostering peace, expressing a desire to provide strategic solutions for regional security challenges.

China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, also engaged with Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban, Saudi Arabia’s national security adviser, and Ali Bagheri Kani, the deputy secretary of Iran’s national security council. Wang noted that China is prepared to play a constructive part in helping the region move past the pandemic’s effects toward long-term stability.

In his meeting with Bagheri Kani, Wang affirmed China’s support for Iran as it protects its security and sovereignty. The Iranian official reportedly expressed a hope for China to assume a more prominent role in both regional and international peace efforts.

When the United States and Israel executed coordinated military strikes against Iran in February, Beijing was credited with encouraging Tehran to engage in ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan. Shen Dingli, a scholar based in Shanghai, observed that while China’s Middle Eastern influence may not be at its previous peak, its impact cannot be overlooked given its regional trade and investment.

Shen further noted that China holds immense economic leverage over Iran, as it imports roughly 90 percent of the country’s crude. Between April and June, Beijing reduced these imports by 30 percent, reaching a decade-low level. Some analysts suggest this reduction prevented a major global inflation spike, shaving approximately $30 off the price of Brent crude.

While China has played limited role in peacebuilding because it does not view the conflict as its responsibility to resolve, Wang Yi remarked that the war should not have occurred and that the U.S. and Israel would lack public approval for the strikes. Data from the Pew Research Center in July indicates China is now viewed more favorably than the United States in a majority of 36 surveyed nations.

Persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for global gas and oil—pose a threat to the Chinese economy, as energy shortages could dampen demand for Chinese goods. Tehran and Washington are currently in intense negotiations regarding an agreement that could ensure the reopening of the waterway.

Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened military action against Iran following the U.S. midterm elections, a prospect that causes concern in Beijing. Shen suggested that Trump’s drive for a Middle East deal might offer China an opening to position itself as a mediator, enhancing Xi’s standing before their summit.

To further these efforts, foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning announced Monday that special envoy Zhai Jun will be dispatched to Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia between early and mid-November.

Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)