Iran Warns of Costly Conflict if US and Israel Resume Hostilities

POLICY WIRE — Tehran, Iran — Iranian military leadership has issued a warning that any full-scale war with the United States and Israel would prove far longer and more expensive than adversaries currently anticipate. Officials indicated that Tehran’s armed forces are prepared to deploy novel weaponry and tactical strategies should a third major conflict erupt since the tensions began last June, potentially following the upcoming US elections.

Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, a former commander within the IRGC, told Al Jazeera that despite suffering losses from American and Israeli strikes earlier this year, the military is currently in a superior operational state than during previous engagements.

The commander noted that their offensive target database has grown significantly, while the range and precision of their missiles have improved alongside enhanced drone capabilities.

He further stated that new enemy assets have been identified and operations planned for additional geographical areas, asserting that previously undisclosed capabilities would be revealed and utilized if Iran is attacked again.

Leaders from the General Staff of Armed Forces, the IRGC, and the Army recently met with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to discuss contingency measures. They suggested any response would be immediate and could extend beyond the borders of the West Asia region.

Hossein Mohebbi, speaking for the IRGC, declared that the organization is one hundred percent ready to face another assault, describing their ultimate objective as achieving maximum deterrence in the near future.

Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia explained that commanders will utilize asymmetric warfare tactics to offset the technological superiority of US military equipment. He added that some weaponry was refurbished and new equipment was integrated during the brief ceasefire period that followed the June memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States.

Last month, state media showcased an underground facility for drone production and highlighted an upgraded version of the Arash drone, claiming the warhead weight had doubled to 100kg with better guidance systems.

According to a recent Reuters investigation, military agencies linked to the Iranian defense establishment bypassed sanctions to funnel billions into imports for the IRGC. Between January 2025 and last June, shipments from China, Russia, and Germany included rocket propellants, explosives, detonators, titanium, and heavy trucks utilized as mobile launchers.

While Iranian missile defense systems and radars were damaged during the war, Kanani Moghaddam maintained that remaining and newly developed systems are gaining accuracy. He pointed to the successful targeting of US-built F-35 aircraft and drones as feats that can be replicated and expanded.

Regarding maritime operations, he claimed Iran can easily target supertankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway Tehran considers unauthorized. He noted that Iranian attacks on US Navy vessels in September led them to stop entering the area, even though the US naval blockade of southern Iranian ports continues.

Iran’s civilian population and national infrastructure remain vulnerable if conflict resumes, as Tehran and other domestic cities still lack shelters or early warning systems. To date, authorities have not reported any progress regarding these promised protections.

Potential targets also include the electricity grid, oil and gas facilities, petrochemical and steel plants, and roads and railways, which would exacerbate the existing economic crisis.

During both conflicts, several senior political and military figures of the Islamic Republic were killed in US and Israeli strikes. The new supreme leader has not made a public appearance since succeeding his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in early March, a move attributed to security concerns.

This silence has resulted in stricter domestic controls and led internal voices to demand accountability for intelligence failures and the protection of leadership. State-linked analyst Hamzeh Rahim Safavi stated during a Saturday debate that the country has suffered heavy blows and that the root cause is an intelligence weakness that is not being addressed. The son of Yahya Rahim Safavi argued that hardliner demands for a nuclear weapon would not fix these fundamental security gaps.

Esmaeil Kowsari, a former IRGC commander and current member of a parliamentary national security commission, countered last week that despite the assassination of the supreme leader and others, the enemies failed to achieve their primary objectives. He argued the goals were to overthrow the Islamic Republic and fragment the country, claiming Americans are pretending to claim victory through psychological operations on the eve of elections.

Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)