Experts Question Venezuela’s Claim of 300 Billion Barrels in Oil Reserves

POLICY WIRE — Caracas, Venezuela — A single figure sets Venezuela apart from the rest of the world: 303 billion barrels of so-called proven oil reserves. But experts say the country’s estimate is inherently problematic and far from proven, rooted in exaggerated, aging data from a corrupt government.

The number has long been touted by politicians and investors as an important measure of untapped energy potential. Most recently, President Donald Trump’s administration cited the data in detailing a sweeping deal for the United States to take control of some Venezuelan reserves.

A more realistic estimate of the country’s proven reserves, representing the amount of oil that can reasonably be extracted under current conditions, sits at about one-third of what has been reported. Half a dozen experts told The Associated Press that the likely figure ranges between 60 to 120 billion barrels, which is a vast amount but insufficient to keep Venezuela as the world’s largest holder of reserves.

This distinction carries significant weight as Venezuela and the U.S. attempt to attract new investment into the country’s dilapidated oil industry. It also suggests that the August deal announced by Trump, which claimed the U.S. would ultimately control more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s proven oil reserves, is much less profitable than asserted.

Evanan Romero, a former Venezuela energy official based in Houston, dismissed the proposal directly, stating his belief that the Trump administration failed to fully research South American claims before wading in. If the U.S. government called them and asked them to testify to how they did the procedure, the whole world would know that that is a funny number and an absolute lie, Romero noted.

Venezuela’s government did not respond to requests for comment regarding these discrepancies. Meanwhile, Trump has maintained that under the deal, the U.S. will control 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, a figure exceeding the entirety of U.S. crude reserves.

Experts argue that the U.S. is gaining access to a mix of sites that are nearly depleted or totally undeveloped, featuring expected outputs that represent a fraction of Trump’s claims. Some of these oil fields lie deep within the Orinoco Belt, a virtual wilderness in central-eastern Venezuela that poses major technical challenges.

While the White House has not publicly disclosed how it arrived at the 65 billion figure, a statement from spokesperson Taylor Rogers defended the agreement. Rogers asserted that the historic deal marks a major step toward stabilizing Venezuela’s economy after years of hyperinflation and minimal new investment while more than doubling the United States oil reserves.

Independent analysts remain skeptical, noting that historical calculations began over a decade ago under former President Hugo Chávez. During the mid-2000s, Chávez set out to tally reserves in the Orinoco Belt amid increasing global oil prices and unrestricted government spending, utilizing state-owned companies from Brazil, Iran, China, and Spain alongside a U.S.-based firm.

The U.S.-based firm Ryder Scott estimated Venezuela had over 1 trillion barrels of oil beneath the Orinoco Belt’s surface but never calculated proven reserves, forcing Chávez’s government to make the calculation itself. Ryder Scott ultimately refused to sign off on the figures and abandoned the work entirely.

OPEC has accepted the country’s proven reserves calculations and placed it atop the list of proven reserves every year since 2011. Despite widespread skepticism, both Chávez’s successors, including the now-deposed Nicolás Maduro and acting President Delcy Rodríguez, have continued to cite the figures.

Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)