A Case for Rethinking Pakistan’s Provincial Map

Pakistan has changed dramatically since its present provincial structure took shape, but its administrative map has not changed at the same pace. The country now has more than 241 million people, compared with around 208 million in 2017, yet the federation continues to operate through only four provinces. The question, therefore, is no longer simply whether Pakistan needs more provinces. It is whether a rapidly growing, increasingly urbanised and geographically diverse population can continue to be governed effectively through administrative structures designed for a very different demographic reality.

The Demographic Imperative for Smaller Units

The argument for new provinces becomes particularly compelling when population is considered. Punjab has a population of 127.69 million, representing 52.87 percent of Pakistan’s total population. Its scale is extraordinary even by international standards. Lahore Division alone has more than 22.7 million people, while Gujranwala has around 18.8 million, Faisalabad 16.2 million, Multan 14.1 million, Bahawalpur 13.4 million and Dera Ghazi Khan 12.9 million. In other words, several individual regions within Punjab have populations comparable to or larger than those of entire countries.

This scale has practical consequences for governance. A provincial government located in one city must oversee education, health, policing, agriculture, infrastructure, taxation, land administration and development across enormous territories containing millions of citizens with very different needs. The farther citizens are from the provincial centre, the greater the administrative distance between public institutions and the people they are intended to serve.

The problem is not unique to Punjab. Sindh has a population of 55.7 million, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, including the former FATA areas, has 40.86 million, while Balochistan has 14.89 million people spread across an exceptionally large geographical area. These provinces face very different administrative challenges, but the underlying issue is similar: the concentration of authority at provincial capitals can make responsive governance difficult in remote or rapidly growing regions.

Regional Realities: Southern Punjab and Hazara

Southern Punjab illustrates the administrative argument particularly clearly. The three divisions of Multan, Bahawalpur and Dera Ghazi Khan together contain more than 40 million people according to the 2023 census figures. Bahawalpur Division alone has 13.4 million people, while Dera Ghazi Khan has 12.9 million and Multan 14.1 million. These are not small administrative territories. They represent major population centres with substantial agricultural, industrial and commercial potential.

A separate provincial structure could allow development priorities to be designed closer to these populations. Instead of competing with the requirements of a province containing more than half of the country’s population, regional administrations could focus more directly on their own infrastructure, agriculture, education, healthcare, water management and urban development needs.

The same principle applies to the demand for a Hazara province. The Hazara region has undergone considerable demographic growth and administrative expansion. The 2023 census places the population of Hazara Division at more than six million, with major population centres including Mansehra, Abbottabad and Haripur. The case demonstrates that the discussion about new provinces is not confined to southern Punjab. Different parts of the country have developed distinct administrative and economic identities that increasingly demand closer representation.

Fiscal Federalism and Governance Efficiency

There is also an important economic argument. Pakistan’s development challenge is not merely a question of how much money is available, but how effectively public resources reach citizens. The World Bank’s assessment of Pakistan’s fiscal federalism found that more than 80 percent of provincial expenditure in FY2023 went towards recurrent costs, while local governments accounted for less than 5 percent of total government spending in 2024. The report also highlighted continuing weaknesses in aligning spending with poverty and service-delivery needs.

This does not mean that creating provinces automatically solves governance problems. It means that the existing structure deserves to be reconsidered as part of a broader decentralisation strategy. New provinces would be most meaningful if accompanied by empowered local governments, transparent fiscal arrangements, professional administrations and clear accountability mechanisms.

Indeed, this is increasingly becoming part of the national conversation. A national debate organised by the Sustainable Development Policy Institute in August 2026 brought together political representatives, policymakers, technocrats and civil society figures to discuss new provinces, administrative units, fiscal devolution and stronger local governments. The discussion reflected a growing recognition that Pakistan’s governance structure needs to respond to changing demographic and administrative realities.

Constitutional Framework and the Way Forward

Recent reporting also indicates that proposals for new administrative units are being seriously discussed at the governmental level. Ideas have included dividing Punjab into additional units and considering a separate Hazara region within KP, although the precise boundaries and number of proposed provinces remain matters of political and constitutional debate.

The constitutional dimension, however, cannot be ignored. Creating a province is not merely an administrative notification. Article 239 requires a constitutional amendment, and any amendment altering the limits of an existing province must secure a two-thirds majority of that province’s total assembly membership before proceeding to presidential assent. This makes political consensus an essential part of the process.

That constitutional difficulty should not become an argument for preserving an administrative arrangement indefinitely. Rather, it establishes the need for a transparent national framework. Population, geographical accessibility, economic viability, administrative capacity, public demand and equitable resource distribution should be among the criteria used to examine potential new provinces.

Pakistan has already demonstrated that its constitutional map can evolve. The creation of new administrative arrangements, including the merger of the former FATA into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, showed that territorial and constitutional structures can change when political consensus develops around a national objective.

The debate, therefore, should move beyond the narrow question of whether a particular region deserves a province. The larger issue is whether Pakistan’s existing administrative architecture remains proportionate to the size and complexity of the state. A country of 241.5 million people cannot necessarily expect the same administrative model to remain adequate as its population, cities and regional economies expand.

New provinces should consequently be examined as an instrument of administrative reorganisation rather than simply as a question of political geography. Properly designed, smaller provincial units could bring decision-making closer to citizens, allow regional development priorities to receive greater institutional attention and create a clearer chain of accountability between government and the people.

The objective should not be to multiply bureaucracies or redraw the map for political convenience. It should be to create a governance structure that corresponds more realistically to Pakistan’s demographic, geographical and economic realities. The country has changed enormously since its present provincial framework was established. A serious national conversation about whether its administrative map should change with it is therefore no longer avoidable.