Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Tied in Brazil Election Runoff, New Quaest Poll Shows

POLICY WIRE — Sao Paulo, Brazil — President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are locked in a statistical dead heat ahead of a potential October runoff, according to a Quaest...

Editorial Desk

September 8, 2026 One Min Read

POLICY WIRE — Sao Paulo, Brazil — President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are locked in a statistical dead heat ahead of a potential October runoff, according to a Quaest poll released Monday.

The survey, commissioned by Globo, found both candidates drawing 41% of voter support in a head-to-head second-round scenario.

This marks a narrowing from the previous Quaest poll on September 2, which showed Lula leading with 42% to Bolsonaro’s 41%.

Fieldwork for the latest poll was conducted from September 3 to 6, with 2,004 voters interviewed across Brazil.

The results carry a margin of error of two percentage points, placing the matchup within a technical tie under standard polling thresholds.

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Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has steadily gained traction in recent surveys amid a volatile electoral landscape.

Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)

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