WTO Ramps Up Trade Growth Forecast as AI Investments Counter Middle East Disruptions

WTO boosts 2026 trade forecast to 3.9% as AI demand offsets Middle East conflict impacts.

October 8, 2026 One Min Read

POLICY WIRE — Geneva, Switzerland — The World Trade Organization has significantly raised its projection for global merchandise trade growth this year, now estimating a 3.9% increase—nearly double its earlier forecast of 1.9%.

The revised outlook highlights the resilience of global supply chains and the surge in investments related to artificial intelligence, which have provided a strong boost to goods trade despite ongoing challenges from the Middle East conflict.

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Trade in AI-related products, including semiconductors and servers, accounted for nearly half of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, with trade volumes rising by 67% year-on-year. Meanwhile, energy exports from the Middle East faced declines, but other suppliers helped stabilize trade flows.

Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)

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