POLICY WIRE FACT CHECK: Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed overstates Michiganders’ cost for Trump’s tariffs
The Claim On September 1, 2026, Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed posted a graphic on X (formerly Twitter) stating that “Trump’s tariffs cost each Michigan household $5,619.”...
The Claim
On September 1, 2026, Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed posted a graphic on X (formerly Twitter) stating that “Trump’s tariffs cost each Michigan household $5,619.” The post featured an image of his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, alongside President Donald Trump, with a caption that read, “Mike Rogers called it ‘necessary.’” This claim was part of a broader campaign to criticize Trump’s trade policies, particularly his imposition of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods.
The figure of $5,619 was prominently displayed in the graphic, suggesting that every household in Michigan bore this financial burden as a direct result of Trump’s tariffs. The statement was widely shared on social media, sparking public debate about the economic impact of the former president’s trade policies. The claim gained traction due to its emotional appeal and the apparent authority of the number, which was cited by several news outlets and even echoed by Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer in a September 15, 2026, opinion column in The Wall Street Journal.
The Details & Investigation
The $5,619 figure originates from a report by the National Taxpayers Union Foundation (NTUF), which calculated the total tariff costs imposed on Michigan importers since January 2025. According to the NTUF, Michigan importers have incurred $23 billion in tariff costs over that period. To arrive at the per-household figure, the report divided the total amount by the estimated number of Michigan households, resulting in $5,619 per household.
However, this calculation is misleading. The NTUF itself clarified that the $5,619 figure represents the total tariff burden borne by Michigan importers, not the amount paid by individual households. Importers—often manufacturers and businesses—absorb a significant portion of these costs, either through reduced profit margins or by passing them on to consumers. Moreover, many of the goods imported into Michigan are distributed across the country, meaning that the tariffs do not solely affect Michigan residents.
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Jason Miller, a supply chain management professor at Michigan State University, explained that Michigan is a major distribution hub for imported vehicles, particularly from Canada and Mexico. While the state incurs a large share of tariff costs, these goods are ultimately sold nationwide. Therefore, the financial burden of these tariffs is not confined to Michigan households alone. Additionally, the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down some of Trump’s initial tariffs led to $166 billion in refunds, which were not factored into the NTUF’s original analysis.
El-Sayed’s campaign spokesperson acknowledged that the candidate drew from news coverage and statements by Governor Whitmer, who also used the same figure. However, the spokesperson did not address the critical distinction between the total tariff burden on importers and the actual cost borne by individual households. The claim, while rooted in real data, omits key context that would significantly alter its interpretation.
The Verdict
The claim that “Trump’s tariffs cost each Michigan household $5,619” is partially true but highly misleading. The $5,619 figure accurately reflects the total tariff burden on Michigan importers, which includes manufacturers and businesses that import goods such as auto parts and machinery. However, it does not represent the amount paid by individual households. Because of the complex nature of national supply chains and the distribution of imported goods, the financial impact of tariffs is spread across the entire country, not just Michigan.
While the statement contains an element of truth—tariffs do increase consumer costs—it ignores critical details that would provide a more accurate picture. The NTUF’s methodology, while transparent, misleads the public by attributing the total tariff burden to households rather than importers. Additionally, the absence of context regarding the distribution of goods and the impact of tariff refunds further undermines the credibility of the claim. Based on verified evidence and expert analysis, we rate the statement as MOSTLY FALSE.
Counter-misinformation & disinformation investigation conducted by PolicyWire Editorial Desk (PW).