Negotiation Fatigue Threatens Progress on South China Sea Code of Conduct
Asean's hope for a South China Sea code of conduct faces obstacles as significant gaps remain between the bloc and China, particularly with the Philippines.
POLICY WIRE — City, Country — Asean’s optimism regarding the conclusion of a long-awaited code of conduct (COC) for the South China Sea by the end of the year is not universally shared. Observers point to significant gaps in perspectives between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and China, particularly between Beijing and Manila.
Any consensus on the code is expected to be broad — and symbolic. Analysts warn that “negotiation fatigue” could hinder progress, yet emphasize the importance of maintaining ongoing dialogue.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has been engaged in discussions with China to establish a COC aimed at preventing conflicts in the South China Sea. However, these talks have faced numerous challenges, including differing strategic interests — and historical disputes.
A senior Asean diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, stated, “While we remain committed to reaching an agreement, the differences in perspectives cannot be ignored. It’s crucial to keep the dialogue open, even if progress appears slow.”
China claims almost the entirety of the South China Sea, a claim contested by several Asean members, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei. The United States and other non-claimant states have also expressed concerns over freedom of navigation and overflight in the region.
In recent months, tensions have flared between China and the Philippines over incidents involving Chinese coast guard vessels and Filipino fishing boats near disputed islands. These incidents have underscored the urgency for a COC but also highlighted the complexities involved in reaching a mutually acceptable agreement.
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson reiterated Beijing’s stance, saying, “China is committed to peaceful resolution of disputes through dialogue and consultation. We hope all parties can work together to maintain peace — and stability in the region.”
Despite the challenges, Asean — and China have continued to engage in discussions. The 25th Asean-China Summit, held virtually in November 2020, saw both sides reaffirm their commitment to the COC negotiations. However, the summit concluded with no significant breakthroughs, reflecting the ongoing difficulties.
Analysts suggest that while a comprehensive and binding COC may be out of reach in the near term, incremental agreements on confidence-building measures and maritime safety could be achievable. These smaller steps could help build trust — and reduce the risk of incidents escalating into broader conflicts.
An expert on Asian security affairs noted, “The path to a COC is fraught with challenges, but even partial agreements can contribute to regional stability. It’s essential to manage expectations — and focus on practical, implementable measures.”
As the negotiations continue, the international community watches closely. The South China Sea remains a critical flashpoint, with implications for global trade, security, — and geopolitics. The success or failure of the COC negotiations will likely influence the future dynamics of Asean-China relations and the broader Indo-Pacific strategic landscape.
Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)
