Datafolha Poll Shows Flavio Bolsonaro Edging Ahead of Lula in Brazil Runoff

A new Datafolha survey reveals Senator Flavio Bolsonaro leading President Lula in the upcoming October 25 presidential runoff. Explore the latest data.

Editorial Desk

October 9, 2026 One Min Read

POLICY WIRE — Sao Paulo, Brazil — Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has pulled ahead of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in a hypothetical matchup for the October 25 presidential runoff, according to findings released Thursday by Datafolha.

The survey indicates that the senator, who is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would secure 49% of the vote. In comparison, President Lula would capture 45%.

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This marks the first Datafolha study conducted following the initial round of voting held on Sunday, during which the younger Bolsonaro achieved an unexpected lead over the incumbent. Despite the current figures, the results remain within a technical tie, as the poll carries a margin of error of plus-minus 2 percentage points.

Regarding the remaining electorate, 5% of those surveyed indicated they intend to cast a blank ballot, while 1% of respondents remain undecided. Datafolha gathered this information through in-person interviews with 2,520 individuals between October 6 and October 7.

Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)

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