Can More Provinces Fix Pakistan’s Regional Development Gaps?

A child born in Lahore and a child born in Rajanpur live in the same province, they can experience very different levels of access to health, education, and economic opportunity. That gap is not inevitable. It is the predictable result of asking four provincial governments to serve 241 million people, and it is exactly the kind of gap that a smarter administrative map can close. As Pakistan’s population, cities, and development needs have grown, this is a natural moment to ask whether adding administrative units, more provinces, could bring government closer to citizens and deliver services more effectively. The evidence suggests it can.

The Scale Challenge

Punjab alone is home to roughly 52.9% of the national population, and its provincial government administers about 127.69 million people, more than most countries on earth. Sindh governs 55.70 million, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 40.86 million, and Balochistan spans roughly 347,190 square kilometres. These are enormous spans of control for any administration to manage with equal attention. More provinces would mean smaller, more focused units of government, each closer to the people it serves and better placed to respond quickly to local needs.

Closing the Development Gap

Pakistan’s Human Development Index numbers show how much untapped potential exists outside the major cities; HDI stands at 0.70 in Lahore but 0.45 in Rajanpur; 0.61 in Karachi but 0.36 in Tharparkar; 0.57 in Peshawar but 0.38 in Chitral; 0.50 in Quetta but 0.29 in Kech. These gaps of 19 to 25 points show that vast regions of the country are ready for a new chapter of focused development. A dedicated provincial administration for these areas, with its own capital, its own development budget, and its own bureaucratic attention, could unlock the kind of targeted investment that turns these numbers around, the way it has for peripheral regions elsewhere in the world.

Public development spending already shows what focused attention can achieve: Lahore receives spending equivalent to 189% of the provincial average and Quetta 142%, demonstrating that when a city becomes an administrative centre, resources follow. More provincial capitals would mean more cities and regions receiving this kind of dedicated investment, spreading the benefits of administrative attention far more widely across the country.

Strengthening Education and Health Delivery

The 2023 District Education Performance Index rated 77 districts “Low” and 56 “Medium,” while Pakistan recorded 336,582 registered doctors, 1,934 hospitals, and 5,746 BHUs nationwide. These figures represent a genuine foundation of human and institutional capital. New provinces would allow this capacity to be organized around smaller, more manageable populations, giving education and health administrators a realistic number of districts and citizens to serve, and giving local communities a provincial government whose full attention is on their schools and clinics rather than divided across tens of millions of people.

A Fiscal Framework Ready to Scale

Under the 7th NFC Award, provinces already receive 57.5% of the divisible pool, and for FY2026–27 the federal budget allocates Rs8.848 trillion as the provincial share in taxes. This is a mature, rules-based fiscal federalism framework, one that has successfully distributed resources to four provinces for decades and is well-positioned to extend the same discipline to a larger number of units. More provinces would mean this proven formula reaching more capitals, more treasuries, and more local development budgets directly.

Following a Well-Trodden Global Path

Pakistan would be joining a long list of nations that have expanded their administrative maps as they grew. Bangladesh went from 4 divisions to 8, and during this period of expansion, its growth rate rose from 3.54% in the 1980s to 8.15% by 2018–19, while per-capita income climbed from $275 to $2,800, overtaking India. Turkey grew from 67 to 81 provinces while per-capita income rose from $283 in 1961 to nearly $13,000 by 2023. South Africa moved from 4 to 9 provinces, Nigeria from 12 to 36 states, Indonesia from 26 to 38 provinces, and India from 22 to 28 states. Even the United States continues to actively debate statehood for Washington, DC, showing that thriving federations keep refining their administrative structures as they develop.

Measured against comparably populous nations, the opportunity for Pakistan is clear: Indonesia, with 275 million people, has 34 sub-national units; Nigeria, with 219 million, has 27; Brazil, with 213 million, has 36. Pakistan, with 241 million people and just four provinces, has significant room to grow into a governance structure that matches its scale and ambition.

Building on a Strong Foundation

The 18th Amendment successfully devolved power from the centre to the provinces, proving that Pakistan’s federal system can adapt and grow stronger through thoughtful structural change. Expanding the number of provinces is the natural next step in that same tradition, bringing authority, resources, and government attention even closer to citizens across every region. Using clear, objective criteria, population, geography, fiscal capacity, service delivery, and administrative load, Pakistan can design new provinces that strengthen national cohesion by ensuring every citizen, wherever they live, has a provincial government within reach.

Government works best when it operates at a scale people can reach. Pakistan has the fiscal frameworks, the administrative experience, and the global precedent to take this step with confidence.