India 2025: The Rise of a Coercive Power

In the study of foreign policy, it is often observed that national ideals and strategic interests tend to converge rather than conflict. Throughout history, power has been projected through various means, military strength, diplomatic engagement, economic leverage, and, increasingly, cultural influence and narrative management. Although soft power has been elevated in global politics in recent decades, a contrary trajectory has been associated with India in 2025, where coercion and interference appear to have been prioritized.

Once widely regarded as a secular and relatively restrained actor, India has, in recent years, been perceived as adopting a more assertive and interventionist external posture. A shift from perception to projection, and from restraint to hard-power instruments, has been identified by numerous scholars. This behavioral evolution has been characterized as the rise of a “global bully,” defined by transnational repression, covert influence operations, and coercive diplomacy. The patterns anticipated in India’s foreign policy during 2025 reflect this transition, observable through four case studies: Canada, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Türkiye.

Canada: Diplomatic Deterioration and Transnational Repression

Following the sharp breakdown in bilateral relations after the 2023 killing of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, attempts at diplomatic repair were initiated in 2025, culminating in an invitation extended by Prime Minister Mark Carney for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend the G7 Summit in Alberta. However, tensions remained largely unresolved.

Canadian intelligence agencies publicly reported India’s involvement in foreign interference operations and transnational repression, particularly targeting Sikh diaspora activists and certain political figures.

These events produced notable disruptions in trade, educational exchange, and technology collaboration, while Canada’s Sikh community was disproportionately affected.

Pakistan: Escalation Through Sanctions, Water Threats, and Proxy Dynamics

Following May 2025, a series of punitive measures were imposed by India against Pakistan, including trade sanctions, suspension of postal and parcel services, and cancellation of visas for Pakistani nationals, effectively halting people-to-people and commercial movement. Indian officials also issued threats to revoke the Indus Waters Treaty, a move that would severely affect Pakistan’s water security.

Militarily, “Operation Sindoor” was launched by India with the stated objective of dismantling alleged militant infrastructure inside Pakistan. However, only civilian casualties were primarily reported. These actions were widely interpreted as an effort to pressure Pakistan through a mix of water leverage, diplomatic obstruction, and limited kinetic force.

Bangladesh: Water Pressures, Political Anxiety, and Strategic Distrust

By 2025, Indian behavior toward Bangladesh was increasingly described as coercive, shaped by political, economic, and societal measures aimed at safeguarding its traditional influence over Dhaka. The replacement of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina with Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus was perceived in India as a strategic loss, particularly because Dhaka began deepening ties with China and Pakistan.

In response, India was accused of employing pressure through delayed water-sharing negotiations, postponement of joint development projects, and the mobilization of civil society and diaspora voices to critique Bangladesh’s political transition and minority rights record. These actions collectively suggested the use of coercive diplomacy, economic leverage, political signaling, and water management, to shape Bangladesh’s internal and external policy preferences. As a result, mistrust between the two countries grew steadily.

Türkiye: Economic Boycotts and Regulatory Punitive Measures

Relations between India and Türkiye deteriorated significantly after Türkiye openly criticized India’s military operations during the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict and aligned itself diplomatically with Pakistan.

In retaliation, India employed a range of economic and regulatory tools. Nationwide boycotts of Turkish products, including food items, apparel, and marble, were promoted. Turkish Airlines faced stringent audits by Indian aviation authorities, with compliance demands widely interpreted as punitive in intent. Indian academic institutions also suspended collaborations with Turkish universities under the pretext of national security concerns.

These developments illustrated India’s willingness to weaponize trade regulations, consumer behavior, and institutional linkages as part of a broader coercive strategy toward Türkiye.

Conclusion

Across multiple regions and issue areas, India’s foreign policy in 2025 has been increasingly characterized in the literature as assertive, interventionist, and coercive. Through economic pressure, intelligence operations, regulatory measures, and selective military actions, India has been perceived as advancing its strategic objectives in ways that resemble bully-like behavior. The cumulative effect of these actions, in Canada, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Türkiye, positions India in 2025 as a global actor more inclined to use forceful and intimidating practices to secure its interests rather than relying on soft power or traditional diplomacy.