China Hits Demographic Milestone as Elderly Dependency Ratio Outpaces Children
China's old-age dependency ratio reached 23.1% in 2025, surpassing the child ratio for the first time as the nation faces a record-low birth rate.
POLICY WIRE — Hong Kong, China — China has reached a significant demographic turning point as the number of elderly citizens requiring support now exceeds the number of children. Official data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the old-age dependency ratio climbed to 23.1 percent in 2025, while the child dependency ratio stood at 22 percent.
This shift reflects a long-term trend of an aging population coupled with a shrinking birth rate. The country’s population has now declined for four consecutive years, with birth rates hitting record lows.
Current figures reveal there are more than 223 million people aged 65 and older in China, compared to approximately 213 million children aged 14 and under. The elderly dependency ratio has seen a consistent climb over the last decade, rising from 15 percent in 2016 to surpass the 20 percent mark by 2021.
The roots of this demographic imbalance are tied to decades of social shifts, including the impact of the one-child policy enforced between 1980 and 2015, alongside rapid urbanization. Historical data shows that the elderly dependency ratio has trended upward from a record low of 8 percent in 1982 to its current peak.
In response to these trends, Chinese authorities have introduced various initiatives aimed at reversing the decline in births. These measures include providing family subsidies, expanding childcare support, and lowering medical costs associated with childbirth. Officials have also committed to improving urban environments to better accommodate the needs of families and young people.
Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)
