Fraying Loyalties in Netanyahu’s Northern Stronghold Ahead of Israeli Election

POLICY WIRE — Kiryat Shmona, Israel — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party has historically enjoyed unwavering support in the northern city of Kiryat Shmona. However, cracks are beginning to show in this traditional conservative bastion ahead of Tuesday’s national vote.

Israel’s northernmost commercial hub was evacuated three years ago following intense rocket fire from Lebanon. Despite a reduction in direct hostilities, the community remains visibly depleted, and mounting frustration over Netanyahu’s handling of the conflict threatens his standing at the ballot box.

Seeking to neutralize Hezbollah, Netanyahu initiated extensive bombing campaigns and ordered two invasions into Lebanon since 2023. These military actions resulted in over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon, displaced roughly 1 million individuals, and left Israeli troops occupying a portion of southern territory.

Nevertheless, security concerns persist among local residents. While some argue that government forces should have adopted an even more aggressive posture, others express profound disappointment with the administration’s protective measures.

Eti Ben Shabat, a 64-year-old resident, noted that while she and her family routinely voted for Likud in past elections without hesitation, recent disappointments changed her perspective. She cited unfulfilled promises regarding local safety and a failure to permanently neutralize Hezbollah as primary reasons for her disillusionment.

Although Netanyahu retains significant backing in Kiryat Shmona, even minor losses in core regions could jeopardize his electoral prospects. A downturn might hand a victory to his primary challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, or empower hardline factions within a future coalition.

Historically, the municipality demonstrates strong right-wing preferences. During the 2021 and 2022 elections, approximately 50% of local ballots went to Likud, doubling the national average of 25% reported by the Central Elections Committee.

Sami Malul, a 72-year-old retired city councilor and former acting mayor, maintains that the community’s demographic and socioeconomic makeup naturally aligns with Likud. Yet, the prolonged displacement of residents for over a year following the October 7, 2023, attacks has strained local trust.

Even though a late 2024 ceasefire was established, renewed missile strikes in March 2026 shattered local confidence. Official estimates claim nearly 80% of the 22,000 residents have returned, but community members suggest the actual return rate is closer to 50%.

Nissan Zeevi, a lifelong Likud supporter and local activist who founded Lobby 1701 during the recent conflict, is running for parliament with the opposition party Beyachad. He criticized the government for what he terms the total abandonment of the northern region.

Polling data indicates a sharp decline in northern support for Netanyahu, dropping from roughly 29% prior to the 2022 election to about 17% in a recent Hebrew University Agam Labs survey. Analysts suggest disillusioned Likud voters may pivot toward hardline groups like Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party.

Ben Shabat intends to vote for Eisenkot, citing a preference for a leader untainted by ongoing corruption proceedings. Netanyahu visited the city briefly on Tuesday for closed events at a high school and university, bypassing street-level campaigning.

Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)