El Niño Could Lead to 451,000 Extra Heat-Related Deaths, Study Warns

El Niño may cause 451,000 more heat deaths globally. High-risk regions and mitigation strategies revealed.

September 23, 2026 One Min Read

POLICY WIRE — Chicago, United States — A new report from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab warns that the ongoing El Niño could result in 451,000 additional heat-related deaths during the first nine months of the year compared to a normal year.

The research highlights that these fatalities would be in addition to the broader impacts of droughts, wildfires, and flooding linked to rising temperatures and altered rainfall patterns. The group emphasized that this El Niño could potentially be the strongest on record, amplifying its effects worldwide.

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Nations in the Global South are expected to face the most severe consequences, with Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad projected to account for over 65,000 heat-related deaths combined. The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia could see nearly 40,000 deaths collectively, while Brazil and India are also at high risk. Michael Greenstone, a cofounder of the Climate Impact Lab, noted that the staggering number represents real people—parents, children, neighbors, and workers—who are vulnerable to extreme heat.

Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)

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