UFC Vegas 116: Sterling vs. Zalal — Expert Betting Picks, Odds & Fight Predictions

POLICY WIRE — Las Vegas, Nevada — Mixed Martial Arts enthusiasts are gearing up for UFC Vegas 116 this weekend, scheduled to unfold on Saturday, April 25, 2026, from the familiar confines of the META APEX and streaming live on Paramount+.

This event marks the promotion’s return to the APEX facility since early April, featuring a highly anticipated main event between Aljamain Sterling and Youssef Zalal in the featherweight division.

Main Event Deep Dive: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal

The headline bout pits former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling against the surging Youssef Zalal. Zalal, currently riding an impressive winning streak, aims to solidify his position among the division’s top contenders by overcoming a fighter of Sterling’s caliber.

Sterling’s recent activity has been sporadic, marked by a peculiar 155-pound contest against Brian Ortega in August 2025, which saw him dominate a visibly depleted opponent. This marked his first victory since a decision loss to Movsar Evloev and only his third appearance since relinquishing his bantamweight title in 2023. His limited fight schedule has often been attributed to a challenging relationship with UFC management.

In contrast, Youssef Zalal has enjoyed a meteoric rise since rejoining the promotion in 2024. He boasts five consecutive wins since March 2023, with all but one ending in a finish. His last outing saw him secure an armbar submission against Josh Emmett in approximately 90 seconds. Prior to that, he convincingly outpointed Calvin Kattar, showcasing a dominant performance.

This current run extends Zalal’s overall winning streak to eight fights, including previous boxing and kickboxing victories. Notably, he had been cut from the UFC after an 0-3-1 record but has since rebuilt his career impressively. His only losses during this period were to elite fighters like Ilia Topuria, making him one of only two men to go the distance with the formidable Spaniard.

Analyzing the matchup, Sterling’s current form remains a significant question mark. His infrequent appearances and the unusual circumstances of his last bout complicate any definitive assessment.

While Zalal is expected to offer considerably more resistance than Sterling’s recent opponents, the tactical challenge for Sterling lies in countering Zalal’s aggressive style. Both athletes excel at securing back control and fatiguing their adversaries, though Zalal tends to pursue submissions more directly.

Sterling, a highly skilled wrestler, consistently faces the disadvantage of being the smaller competitor in the featherweight division, a factor evident in his prior loss to Evloev. Conversely, Zalal benefits from a noticeable size advantage and demonstrably superior striking capabilities, presenting a complex challenge for Sterling. Although their striking accuracy statistics are similar, Zalal’s stand-up game is widely regarded as more effective. Both fighters also boast commendable striking defense.

“If this bout primarily unfolds on the feet, Zalal could secure a comfortable victory. However, if both fighters commit to grappling exchanges and submission attempts, Zalal’s exceptional flexibility, body awareness, and rapid transitions in grappling could grant him the edge, further supported by his size advantage.”

Considering these dynamics, the official pick leans towards Youssef Zalal via moneyline (-142).

Read More: Youssef Zalal Confronts ‘Most Dangerous’ Aljamain Sterling in Pivotal UFC Featherweight Main Event

Co-Main Event: Norma Dumont vs. Joselyne Edwards

The co-main event features a women’s bantamweight clash between Norma Dumont and Joselyne Edwards. Dumont enters with a six-fight win streak, though her momentum is somewhat curtailed by her inactivity. Her last fight in November 2025 resulted in a split decision victory over Ketlen Vieira, preceded by a September 2024 bout in The Sphere where she impressively defeated Irene Aldana.

Edwards, meanwhile, is on a four-fight finishing streak, with all victories occurring within the last two years. She submitted Nora Cornolle and dominated Priscila Cachoeria in recent outings. Edwards has consistently made weight in her last three fights, indicating a renewed focus on her career.

This matchup promises excitement. Edwards has displayed dynamic improvement and possesses the striking power to potentially hurt Dumont. While Dumont has defeated bigger names, her recent performances, aside from the Aldana fight, have shown inconsistency. Edwards also holds slight reach and height advantages, with her straight punches looking particularly sharp. Dumont, despite being smaller, will likely have a strength advantage, which could be crucial in clinch situations and against the cage.

The recent consistency in Edwards making weight suggests a heightened commitment, potentially leading to a breakthrough performance. The pick here is Joselyne Edwards +3.5 (-160), anticipating either an Edwards stoppage or a close decision.

Additional Main Card Previews & Predictions

Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez

Rafa Garcia demonstrated remarkable resilience, securing a victory over Jared Gordon in September 2024 with ground elbows, bringing his Octagon record to 6-4. Alexander Hernandez’s last scheduled fight was canceled due to betting irregularities, an incident that overshadowed an otherwise strong four-fight win streak, including finishes over Diego Ferreira and Chase Hooper.

Disregarding the controversy, Hernandez’s recent form, showcasing improved striking and grappling adaptability, makes him a formidable opponent. His ability to tailor his skills to his adversaries gives him an edge. Given his size advantage and refined skill set, the prediction is for Alexander Hernandez moneyline (-130).

Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti

Veteran Davey Grant saw his recent momentum halted by a flying knee from Charles Jourdain. Despite being 40, Grant had shown surprising agility in previous wins over Da’Mon Blackshear and Ramon Tavares. Adrian Luna Martinetti makes his UFC debut after an impressive performance on Contender Series, where he won a decision in a bout dubbed “THE GREATEST FIGHT EVER.” With a 17-1 professional record, Martinetti has primarily competed in the South American circuit.

This fight is finely balanced, pitting Grant’s experience against Martinetti’s fresh talent. While Martinetti showed a willingness to brawl, he also sought takedowns on Contender Series. Grant is versatile, mixing striking and wrestling effectively. Given the uncertainties of Grant’s age versus Martinetti’s debut jitters, a cautious approach suggests the bet is Over 2.5 rounds (-166).

For more insights into significant victories in other sporting events, you might find our coverage of Ibrahim Aliyu’s First Goal Secures 1-0 Houston Dynamo Victory Over San Diego FC insightful.

Montel Jackson vs. Raoni Barcelos

Montel Jackson recently fell short in a high-profile opportunity, losing a split decision to Deiveson Figueiredo after a six-fight win streak. Raoni Barcelos is on an impressive four-fight winning streak, highlighted by an upset decision victory over Payton Talbott as a significant underdog, followed by wins against Cody Garbrandt and Ricky Simon.

Jackson’s tentativeness against Figueiredo contrasts sharply with Barcelos’ aggressive, proactive style. Barcelos’ relentless pressure and willingness to engage could exploit Jackson’s hesitations. Despite Jackson’s size advantage, Barcelos has a proven track record of success against larger opponents. The pick is Raoni Barcelos moneyline (+150).

Marcus Buchecha vs. Ryan Spann

The UFC career of Marcus “Buchecha” Almeida has been challenging, beginning with a decision loss to Martin Buday and followed by a forgettable draw with Kennedy Nzechukwu, salvaged only by a point deduction against Nzechukwu. Ryan Spann moved to heavyweight last year, suffering a TKO loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta before rebounding with a signature guillotine submission victory over Lukasz Brzeski.

Spann’s grappling prowess surpasses Nzechukwu’s, making Buchecha’s takedowns potentially less effective. Buchecha’s quickly diminishing cardio and lack of striking offense make his takedown attempts predictable and vulnerable. Spann’s speed and athleticism should allow him to evade early takedowns, and a tired Buchecha’s lunging attempts could expose his neck to Spann’s renowned “Spann-atine” submission. This bout may mark the end of “Buchecha’s” UFC tenure. The recommended bet is Ryan Spann moneyline (+130).

UFC Vegas 116 Featured Prelims & Undercard Picks

• Rodolfo Vieira vs. Eric McConico: Vieira seeks redemption after a knockout loss to Bo Nickal. His strong BJJ foundation will be critical here. While McConico has a reach advantage, Vieira’s commitment to grappling should secure him a win. Pick: Rodolfo Vieira moneyline (-278).
• Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden: Filho, known for his submission skills, faces a struggling Durden who has lost four of his last five. Durden’s recent grappling woes make this a nightmare matchup. Pick: Jafel Filho by submission.
• Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague: Bueno Silva is winless since 2024, showing declining aggression. Montague, undefeated in her UFC debut, displays aggressive forward pressure and strong body-lock takedowns. Montague’s size and activity should lead to a dominant decision. Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (-215).
• Talita Alencar vs. Julia Polastri: Polastri impressed in her last fight, showcasing versatility in striking and takedowns, along with a significant reach advantage. Pick: Julia Polastri moneyline (-265).
• Max Griffin vs. Victor Valenzuela: Griffin, despite a two-fight skid, is durable and faces a debuting Valenzuela who is smaller for the division and prone to wild exchanges. Griffin’s experience and ability to control the fight against the fence should lead to a decision. Pick: Max Griffin moneyline (+124).
• Lucas Brennan vs. Francis Marshall: Marshall is a well-rounded wrestler with effective striking setups, facing Brennan, a short-notice call-up with a Bellator background but raw striking. Marshall is expected to secure an early finish. Pick: Under 2.5 rounds (-120).

UFC Vegas 116 Long Shot Bets

For those seeking higher returns, consider these intriguing long-shot opportunities:

• Ryan Spann to win by submission (+800): Given Marcus Buchecha’s one-dimensional fighting style and tendency to tire, he is highly susceptible to Spann’s infamous guillotine choke.
• Two-bet parlay: Raoni Barcelos + Eric McConico (+712): Barcelos is an excellent underdog pick against Montel Jackson, whose comfort zone he can easily disrupt. McConico is a riskier bet against Rodolfo Vieira, but if he can evade the ground game, a decision victory is plausible.
• Joselyne Edwards to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+1200): Edwards has shown significant improvement in her striking power and precision. Against the often-inactive and inconsistent Norma Dumont, Edwards possesses a genuine chance of securing a stoppage victory.

Responsible Betting

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