Global Birth Rates Continue to Decline, New Study Suggests

POLICY WIRE — London, United Kingdom — A new study from the University of Texas at Austin and Hunter College in New York City suggests that global birth rates may not be on the path to recovery, reinforcing concerns about long-term demographic changes.

The research, published as a working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research, analyzed data from multiple sources including UN fertility statistics, the Human Fertility Database, and regional records from Japan, India, and the U.S. It found that once fertility rates fall significantly, they tend to continue declining rather than stabilizing or rebounding.

There is no robust evidence for a systematic fertility rebound or for a stable equilibrium point at any fertility level conventionally assumed, the authors wrote. The findings challenge previous assumptions that fertility might stabilize or increase in some regions, but the researchers cautioned that more data is needed before firm conclusions can be drawn.

The U.S. is already experiencing major demographic shifts, with the population aging rapidly. By 2060, older adults will account for 23.4% of the population, according to the Census Bureau. Births have dropped nearly 25% since 2007, and in more than half of states, deaths now outpace births.

Population growth has also slowed due to reduced immigration, which fell to just 0.5% between July 2024 and 2025. Experts warn that without significant increases in immigration, U.S. population growth will remain historically low, potentially leading to a population decline in the future.

Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)