COP31: Pakistan Deserves Climate Finance That Saves Lives
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COP31: Pakistan Deserves Climate Finance That Saves Lives

By ALI AHMED COP31: A climate-finance pledge cannot get a family out of the path of a flash flood. That is the practical test facing COP31, the 31st Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework...

Ali Ahmed
November 7, 2026 5 Min Read
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By ALI AHMEDCOP31: A climate-finance pledge cannot get a family out of the path of a flash flood. That is the practical test facing COP31, the 31st Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, which begins Nov. 9 in Antalya, Türkiye. As governments gather to discuss emissions, adaptation and financial support, Pakistan should press for funding that protects communities before disasters strike and supports recovery long after they have passed.The urgency extends beyond Pakistan. According to the United Nations Environment Program’s latest Emissions Gap Report, the world remains far off track to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals. Even if countries implement their current national climate pledges, global warming is projected to remain well above 1.5 degrees Celsius. For vulnerable developing countries, the consequences are already devastating.UNEP’s 2026 report estimates that fully implementing existing national pledges would still lead to about 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming this century, and that current policies point to about 2.8 degrees. It also says new pledges submitted since the previous report have made a negligible difference to projected warming.Climate disasters rarely come with sufficient warning, and their costs are difficult to measure in advance. Flash floods, glacial lake outbursts and cloudbursts can destroy homes, bridges, roads and livelihoods within hours. Women, children, older people and persons with disabilities are particularly vulnerable, especially in communities with limited resources and inadequate infrastructure. The full scale of the destruction often becomes apparent only after floodwaters recede, when the long and difficult task of rebuilding begins.Pakistan has repeatedly paid a heavy price despite contributing less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions.According to Our World in Data, Pakistan accounted for about 0.5% of global carbon dioxide emissions in 2024 and has produced about 0.31% of the world’s cumulative CO₂ emissions since 1751. The average person in Pakistan emitted about 1.9 tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in 2024.The 2022 floods affected 33 million people and killed more than 1,700. A joint assessment by the government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and international partners, including the World Bank, estimated damage and economic losses at more than $30 billion. The destruction extended far beyond buildings and roads, disrupting education, agriculture, health services and household incomes.The assessment found that one-third of the country was under water and put recovery and reconstruction needs at $16.3 billion. Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal said nearly eight million people were displaced.The human cost was again evident during Pakistan’s 2025 floods. In Buner, a cloudburst claimed more than 200 lives, while flooding elsewhere in the country displaced communities and damaged homes and infrastructure. Saqib Hassan, a local businessman in northern Pakistan, lost his home, relatives’ houses and the family’s dairy farms. A last-minute announcement from a mosque was their only warning to flee. His experience illustrates why early-warning systems must reach people in time, rather than exist merely as equipment on paper.Official figures later rose. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s provincial disaster management authority reported 337 deaths in Buner district alone, after more than 150 mm of rain fell there within an hour on Aug. 15. Prime Minister Sharif said that monsoon’s death toll nationwide had passed 700.Pakistan has a compelling case for international support. As chair of the Group of 77 and China in 2022, it helped secure agreement at COP27 in Egypt to establish a loss-and-damage fund for vulnerable developing countries. That diplomatic achievement was significant, but its purpose must now translate into accessible support for communities facing losses they cannot prevent or absorb.At the Geneva conference in January 2023, co-hosted by Prime Minister Sharif and U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, partners pledged more than $9 billion, about a billion dollars more than Pakistan had sought. Sharif said the rest of the funds would come from domestic resources.The more than $9 billion pledged by international partners at Pakistan’s January 2023 recovery conference in Geneva should not be confused with compensation already delivered. Those commitments involved different financing arrangements, including loans and project-based assistance. A pledge is different from an approved project, and an approved project is different from money reaching affected families.
A pledge is different from an approved project, and an approved project is different from money reaching affected families.Ali Ahmed
Pakistani officials said almost 90% of the commitments made in Geneva were project-financing loans.Loans can finance productive infrastructure, but they are a poor fit for emergency protection, evacuation services and essential recovery in communities with little capacity to repay. Pakistan should not have to choose between leaving people exposed and assuming unsustainable debt. Grants must play a larger role in protecting vulnerable populations.At COP29 in 2024, countries agreed on a goal of at least $300 billion annually for developing countries by 2035, with developed countries taking the lead. The agreement also called for scaling up finance from all sources to at least $1.3 trillion annually by 2035. Pakistan should seek a credible timetable for progress, clearer grant commitments and simpler access to funding. Communities facing recurring hazards cannot put their safety on hold until 2035.
Communities facing recurring hazards cannot put their safety on hold until 2035.Ali Ahmed
At Antalya, Pakistan should arrive with a concise list of costed priorities developed in consultation with provincial and local authorities. Early-warning systems need reliable communications, usable evacuation routes and accessible shelters. Housing programs should make rebuilding safer, while agricultural assistance should help farmers resume production without selling the land, livestock or tools on which their livelihoods depend.There is useful experience to build on. Pakistan’s Glacial Lake Outburst Floods Risk Reduction in Northern Pakistan (GLOF-II) project, led by the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination, is a major climate adaptation initiative aimed at reducing risks in vulnerable communities in northern Pakistan. Supported by the Green Climate Fund and implemented with the United Nations Development Program, the project combines community preparedness, early-warning systems and protective infrastructure. Such initiatives require sustained funding and maintenance. Installing equipment is only the beginning; someone must keep it working, interpret its signals and know what action to take.According to UNDP, GLOF-II is funded by about $37 million in Green Climate Fund grants and covers 24 valleys across Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. UNDP estimates that 7.1 million people in the two regions are vulnerable to glacial lake outbursts, and lists the project’s end date as December 2026.Domestic accountability is equally important. Provincial and municipal authorities should enforce building regulations, protect drainage routes and incorporate flood risks into development approvals. Where relocation is necessary, residents must have realistic housing alternatives and be treated fairly. Pakistan should also publish climate-finance contracts, disbursements and progress reports, allow independent scrutiny and give communities a way to report failures.International responsibility must accompany domestic accountability. Developed countries, whose historical emissions have contributed disproportionately to global warming, should honor their climate-finance commitments. Energy security and the transition away from fossil fuels will also feature prominently in international negotiations, but these debates must not overshadow the immediate needs of vulnerable populations.COP31 will not resolve every dispute over climate responsibility or provide all the funding Pakistan requires. It can, however, produce meaningful progress if negotiations result in earlier, more accessible support and credible implementation. For families such as Hassan’s, the test is straightforward: When danger returns, will they receive enough warning to escape safely, and will they have the resources to rebuild their homes and livelihoods?
Climate justice cannot remain a diplomatic promise.Ali Ahmed
Climate justice cannot remain a diplomatic promise. It must translate into protection before disaster strikes and assistance that lasts long after the headlines fade.

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Ali Ahmed

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