Canada’s Leader Faces Odds in Race for Nobel Peace Prize Amid Tensions with Trump

Canadian PM Mark Carney faces 14% chance of winning Nobel Peace Prize as tensions with Trump escalate.

September 29, 2026 One Min Read

POLICY WIRE — Ottawa, Canada — Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is now among the top contenders for the Nobel Peace Prize, according to prediction market data, as he faces off against U.S. President Donald Trump, who has long expressed frustration over not receiving the award.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee announced this year’s winner less than two weeks away, and Carney currently holds a 14% chance of securing the honor on October 9, per data from prediction market Kalshi. The leader of Canada is linked to humanitarian groups such as Doctors Without Borders and Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, which are also in the running.

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Carney has been vocal in his criticism of Trump’s trade policies, calling U.S. attempts to limit Canada’s international trade deals “unacceptable” and a matter of national sovereignty. He also condemned Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on European allies, particularly over the issue of Greenland. Meanwhile, Trump has claimed credit for ending eight wars, though he has not received the Nobel Peace Prize, despite receiving a medal from a 2025 laureate.

Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)

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