Rethinking Pakistan’s Provinces

The discussion regarding the creation of new provinces in Pakistan usually revolves around either geographic, ethnic or representational considerations. However, such an approach is too narrow. The most critical point is the necessity to reconsider the current administrative structure of the country, which became inadequate in light of the fact that the population of the country increased by 30% after 2017 and now counts more than 241 million people.

Pakistan has been established with four provinces, however, the present day Pakistan is quite different from the country, where these administrative divisions were formed. According to the 2023 census, Punjab has a population of 127.69 million, Sindh – 55.70 million, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – 40.86 million and Balochistan – 14.89 million. The question, hence, is not about the need of Pakistan in the creation of new provinces. It is about the evolution of governance system according to the realties of demography and economics.

Herein lies the strength of the case for making new provinces. A new province should not be seen as just an additional political center, yet another chief minister or yet another layer of bureaucracy. Rather its true value should lie in administrative proximity. In cases where decision-making bodies are geographically, institutionally and politically closer to the citizens, governments will have the potential to find out citizen’s needs and make policies accordingly.

The need arises even more starkly when one takes into account the combination of growth of the population along with uneven development. The latest census in Pakistan conducted in 2023 reveals that the population of Pakistan has grown from 207.68 million in 2017 to 241.50 million in 2023. There has been substantial growth in the urban population as well during this period.

It is inevitable that in such a vast and varied region, there will be the issue of conflicting priorities. What is applicable to a big city may not be so for an agricultural town situated far away from the city. It may also happen that the requirements for development of urban regions may differ from those for development of far-flung regions. The case for smaller provinces will be made because smaller provinces would give the government a chance to focus on the development strategies rather than administering a very vast and varied province from one provincial center.

The discussion is also relevant in light of the constitutional evolution of Pakistan. The 18th Amendment made provisions for increased provincial autonomy, and the obvious question after this is if this provincial autonomy is to be followed by the decentralization of administration as well. In any case, the discussion on decentralizing administration from the provincial capital to the districts has been taking place more often than before. In this sense, making more provinces and local governments are not mutually exclusive issues.

This is crucial. The new provinces should work in harmony with and not substitute empowered local governments. In case the borders of the province are redrawn but decision-making becomes too centralized in the capital of the province, the same problem of governance would persist but only shift to a different level. The goal should be a multi-tier system whereby the federal government performs the responsibilities at the national level, provinces perform those at the regional level, and empowered local governments perform their responsibilities at the community level.

This is best illustrated by South Punjab. The National Assembly passed a resolution in favor of the formation of the South Punjab province in 2012. Since then, the issue of establishing this province has become part of the parliamentary discourse in Pakistan. This shows that the need for administrative reforms cannot be seen as just an electoral promise because it is part of a wider debate on representation and accessibility.

The constitution itself contains a mechanism for such reorganisation through a democratic method. Article 239 states that for a constitutional amendment to be passed, it must have a two-thirds majority in both houses of Parliament, whereas for any change in the borders of the provinces, it must have the assent of two-thirds of the members of the assembly of that province. This would mean that the reorganisation of provinces is itself a constitutional as well as parliamentary issue.

However, there is also an economic angle to the whole matter which needs to be explored. New provinces can plan on their own economic lines as agricultural provinces will plan according to their agriculture-based economy; industrial provinces will plan according to their economic corridor, and underdeveloped provinces will receive special attention regarding infrastructure and human resource development plans. The aim should not be the division of Pakistan’s economic resources into smaller ones, but planning according to the circumstances.

In the same vein, the process of creating provinces would involve prudent financial planning since there would be need for setting up institutions, assemblies and administrative mechanisms. As such, the discussion should be directed away from rhetoric and towards issues of financial feasibility, resource allocation, NFC formulae, administrative transition and institutional development. Indeed, a good transition process would be critical for ensuring that the administrative transformation leads to improved governance and not just increased spending.

Pakistan does not have to regard the establishment of new provinces as a threat to national unity. When well-conceived, it can be seen as part of federalism. The federation will remain the center of national sovereignty and policy-making, but the provinces would be manageable units that respond to regional realities.

In the end, however, the need for further provinces has nothing to do with more jobs in politics. It is about aligning the administrative structure of the state to the Pakistan of today. A nation comprising over 241 million people, rapid urbanization and evermore sophisticated regional economic arrangements cannot be efficiently run on the basis of administrative units built for a completely different demography.

The more pertinent question here, therefore, is not whether Pakistan needs additional provinces as an absolute requirement. Instead, it should be asked whether the current structure of administration allows the people of Pakistan to get efficient governance, whether the region-specific developmental needs are adequately addressed and whether decision-making is close enough to the citizenry. If the answer is becoming increasingly negative, then the restructuring of the provinces must be seen as a natural development in Pakistan’s federation and administration, rather than political fragmentation.