China-Australia Relations Stabilize at ‘Good Enough’ Baseline, Ex-Envoy Reports

POLICY WIRE — Sydney, Australia — Following years of significant strain, China-Australia relations have reached a “good enough” baseline for Canberra, though falling short of Beijing’s broader ambitions, according to a former top Australian diplomat.

The relationship, which experienced a marked downturn since 2017, is now on “a more realistic footing,” as stated by Graham Fletcher, a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based think tank, in a report released on Sunday. Fletcher served as Australia’s ambassador to China from 2019 to 2023.

“The bilateral relationship has moved from a period of significant tension to a more stable, though not fully normalized, state,” Fletcher wrote. “This ‘good enough’ baseline allows for continued engagement on key issues without escalating into open conflict.”

The deterioration in relations began in 2017 with a series of trade restrictions imposed by China on Australian goods, including beef, wine, and barley, in response to Australia’s call for an independent inquiry into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. Subsequent diplomatic spats further exacerbated the situation.

Despite the stabilization, Fletcher noted that the relationship remains complex and is influenced by broader geopolitical dynamics. “While we have reached a baseline, it’s important to recognize that this is not a return to the status quo ante. Both nations are navigating a new reality in their bilateral ties,” he added.

The report comes amid ongoing efforts by both governments to manage their differences while seeking areas of cooperation. Recent high-level visits — and dialogues have aimed at reducing tensions and exploring mutually beneficial initiatives.

Reporting by Policy-Wire (PW)