Modi’s Waning Grip: A Decade of Failed Promises and Strategic Defeats

As Narendra Modi nears the end of his second term, his political future appears increasingly fragile. It is burdened by internal unrest, international criticism, and repeated foreign policy setbacks, most notably at the hands of Pakistan. Modi came to power in 2014 as a charismatic figure promising economic development and global prestige. A decade later, India is struggling with rising religious intolerance, human rights violations, and growing regional isolation. For Pakistan, these failures are not just a vindication of its principled stance, but also a reminder of the limits of Indian coercion under Modi’s leadership.

Military Miscalculations and Strategic Blunders

One of the defining moments of Modi’s tenure was the February 2019 escalation following the Pulwama attack. The Indian Air Force carried out what it called “pre-emptive air strikes” in Balakot, Pakistan. However, Indian claims of eliminating “terror camps” were never substantiated with verifiable evidence. Independent satellite imagery and international media, including Reuters and The New York Times, reported that the alleged target area remained largely intact.

In response, Pakistan carried out a calibrated and successful air strike on February 27, 2019, targeting military sites in Indian-occupied Kashmir. During the operation, Pakistan Air Force shot down an Indian MiG-21 and captured Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman. This incident was a clear strategic and symbolic victory for Pakistan. Despite Indian attempts to control the narrative, the international community recognized Pakistan’s measured military response and its call for de-escalation. The episode severely dented Modi’s image as a strongman capable of deterring Pakistan.

The failure to establish air superiority against Pakistan, a country with a smaller defense budget and fewer conventional resources, was not just a tactical embarrassment but a strategic defeat under Modi’s command.

India’s Kashmir Gamble: A Global Rejection

In August 2019, the Modi government abrogated Article 370, revoking the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. The move, taken unilaterally and without local consultation, was condemned widely. The region was placed under months-long lockdown with communications blackouts, mass detentions, and reports of widespread human rights abuses. International organizations, including the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), Amnesty International, and Human Rights Watch, documented the repression in stark detail.

Pakistan responded by downgrading diplomatic ties and taking the Kashmir issue to global forums. While India sought to present the move as an “internal matter,” Pakistan succeeded in internationalizing the issue, garnering support from China, Turkey, Malaysia, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Even Western democracies, traditionally hesitant to criticize India, expressed concern over the treatment of Kashmiris.

In the context of Modi’s regional policy, the Kashmir move has only deepened instability while exposing the fragility of India’s democratic credentials.

Modi’s Treatment of Minorities: A Domestic Crisis

Perhaps the most severe indictment of Modi’s tenure has been the deepening marginalization of religious minorities, especially Muslims. The passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in 2019, which offers a path to citizenship for non-Muslim refugees from neighboring countries, was seen by many as an open assault on India’s secular fabric. Combined with the proposed National Register of Citizens (NRC), this policy was widely perceived as targeting Muslims and potentially rendering millions stateless.

Mass protests erupted across India, with places like Shaheen Bagh becoming symbols of peaceful resistance. In response, the Modi government cracked down hard, deploying police force and detaining activists. International bodies such as the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) designated India as a “country of particular concern.” The U.S. State Department, the European Parliament, and UN experts issued repeated warnings about the state of religious freedom in India.

In contrast, Pakistan has consistently raised these issues on international platforms, highlighting the growing dangers of Hindu supremacist ideology. Islamabad has argued that Modi’s India is no longer a secular republic but a majoritarian state driven by ethnic and religious exclusion.

Electoral Fatigue and Economic Reality

While Modi’s BJP has remained electorally dominant, recent elections reveal cracks in his popularity. In states like West Bengal, Punjab, and Karnataka, the BJP has suffered significant losses. The recent 2024 general elections have also been marked by low voter turnout and fragmented political narratives, signaling a possible erosion of Modi’s once-invincible image.

Economically, India has failed to meet the lofty expectations set in 2014. Unemployment remains stubbornly high. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), unemployment crossed 7 percent in early 2024. Farmers’ protests, particularly from Punjab and Haryana, exposed Modi’s disconnect from rural India. His handling of COVID-19, especially during the 2021 second wave, saw hospitals overwhelmed and mass cremations on the streets, a tragic collapse of governance.

Pakistan’s Strategic Patience vs. Indian Aggression

Over the past decade, Pakistan has adopted a policy of strategic patience in the face of Indian provocations. Whether it was the Balakot episode, ceasefire violations along the Line of Control, or disinformation campaigns exposed in the EU DisinfoLab report of 2020, Pakistan has responded through diplomacy, international engagement, and measured defense posturing.

This mature approach has increasingly exposed the hollowness of India’s claims. While Modi’s India sought to isolate Pakistan, the results have been quite the opposite. Pakistan has strengthened ties with China, Turkey, Central Asia, and even resumed dialogue with GCC states. India, meanwhile, faces growing discomfort in its neighborhood, from border tensions with China to strained relations with Nepal and Sri Lanka.

Narendra Modi entered Indian politics as a transformative figure, but he may leave it as a deeply polarizing one. His confrontational posture toward Pakistan failed to achieve any military or diplomatic advantage. His domestic policies have fractured India internally, while his international standing has diminished amid rising concerns about human rights and democratic backsliding.

For Pakistan, this trajectory vindicates its consistent stance that peace and stability cannot emerge from belligerence and chauvinism. Modi’s failures, both at home and abroad, signal the limitations of force-based regional policy. As South Asia moves into a new political cycle, the region must move beyond Modi’s divisive legacy toward a future built on mutual respect, dialogue, and real peace.